Poland Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Poland Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Poland. The Poland Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Polish market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Poland and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Poland's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Poland Business Forecast Report | Poland's Political Outlook | Poland's Economic Outlook | Poland's Business Environment | Key Poland Industry Sectors | Poland BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Poland Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Poland's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Poland, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Poland's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Poland's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Poland's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Poland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Poland Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Poland's Political Outlook, Poland's Economic Outlook, Poland's Business Environment and Poland's Key Industry Sectors.

Poland's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Poland over the next 5 years?

BMI's Poland Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Poland Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Polish Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Poland.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Poland
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Poland's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Poland
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Polish government, assessing threats to the continuity of Polish economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Polish Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Poland's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Poland's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Poland, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Polish government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Poland's Economic Outlook:

How will Polish economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Poland through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Polish growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Poland Economic Outlook Contents

The Poland Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Poland, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Polish government views. Underpinning our Poland forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Poland

  • Economic Activity in Poland
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Poland
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Poland
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Poland; Polish currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Poland
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Poland
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Polish External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Poland and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Poland database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Polish government economic policy

Poland's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Poland's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Poland.

Poland Business Environment Contents

  • Poland's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Poland, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Poland
    Competitiveness of Poland's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Poland's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Poland
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Poland
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Poland's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Poland will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Polish market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Poland's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Poland's Key Industry Sectors - Polish Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Poland
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Poland; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Poland
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Poland's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Poland's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Poland Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Poland.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" All aspects of the Risk Ratings, the Central Economic Forecast and the Key Economic Sectors sections are valuable because of the wide diversity of information and the interesting approach to economic problems. "
Chairman of The Board, Cemex Polska Sp. Z O.o., Poland.

BMI's Executive Summary for Poland

[TOP]

Change In Government To Boost Investment Prospects

Following the Civic Platform (PO)'s victory in the snap elections on October 21, the new PO-led coalition is expected to make new advances with regards to structural reforms and rebuilding relations with the EU. Not only is the PO committed to privatisation, it has also pledged to adopt the euro by 2012 or 2013, and limit spending growth to the rate of inflation plus 3% in forthcoming years. These policies combined with its promise to rebuild ties with Poland's European neighbours, which were significantly damaged under the leadership of the Kaczynski brothers, are a highly positive signal to investors. Yet, due to slowing growth in consumer demand and private investment, we forecast real GDP growth to come in at 5.5% in 2008 (down from an estimated 6.4% in 2007) and expect this decelerating trend to continue during the remainder of the decade.

Whilst we are convinced that a PO-led coalition will be positive for economic policy and foreign relations, we believe that some aspects of the party's agenda will become diluted because of the need to cooperate with other actors in the political system. Crucially important for the introduction of reforms is the long standing animosity between President Lech Kaczynski, who will remain in power until 2010, and the PO. This relationship is significant as the executive is allowed to exercise his presidential veto on any bill, and a 60% majority in parliament is necessary to override their veto. Due to the composition of parliament, we believe that it will be difficult for the PO to push through the entirety of its ambitious agenda.

We believe that major downside risks to Polish economic growth are limited in the medium term. In fact, the recent change in government will give fresh momentum to the country's reform progress, especially privatisation, which will boost investor confidence and FDI inflows alike. However, potential knock-on effects of the international credit crisis on investor sentiment and a possible downturn in external demand would bode ill for growth. In our view, this would represent a significant threat to FDI inflows and Poland's export sector, thus possibly posing downside risks to our positive outlook on the country's growth potential.

We maintain our view that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will implement two further 25bps hikes in its benchmark interest rate to 5.50% in 2008, following a 25bps increase to 5.00% in Q407. Aside from external factors (in particular surging food and commodity prices), we believe that domestic causes of price inflation will also continue to remain prominent and prompt the NBP to further tighten monetary policy over the coming months. The main downside risk to our interest rate forecasts is the recent strengthening of the Polish zloty, which gained more than 2.6% since the beginning of October, one point trading at PLN3.66/US$ on November 18. In our view, the currency has further scope for appreciation over the course of 2008, with our year-end target standing at PLN3.57/EUR.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

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