Romania Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Romania Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Romania. The Romania Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Romanian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Romania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Romania's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Romania Business Forecast Report | Romania's Political Outlook | Romania's Economic Outlook | Romania's Business Environment | Key Romania Industry Sectors | Romania BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Romania Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Romania's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Romania, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Romania's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Romania's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Romania's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Romania, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Romania Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Romania's Political Outlook, Romania's Economic Outlook, Romania's Business Environment and Romania's Key Industry Sectors.

Romania's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Romania over the next 5 years?

BMI's Romania Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Romania Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Romanian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Romania.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Romania
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Romania's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Romania
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Romanian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Romanian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Romanian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Romania's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Romania's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Romania, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Romanian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Romania's Economic Outlook:

How will Romanian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Romania through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Romanian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Romania Economic Outlook Contents

The Romania Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Romania, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Romanian government views. Underpinning our Romania forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Romania

  • Economic Activity in Romania
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Romania
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Romania
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Romania; Romanian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Romania
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Romania
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Romanian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Romania and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Romania database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Romanian government economic policy

Romania's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Romania's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Romania.

Romania Business Environment Contents

  • Romania's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Romania, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Romania
    Competitiveness of Romania's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Romania's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Romania
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Romania
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Romania's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Romania will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Romanian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Romania's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Romania's Key Industry Sectors - Romanian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Romania
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Romania; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Romania
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Romania's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Romania's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Romania Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Romania.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" BMI's Business Forecast Report has proved to be what we were seeking for our strategic planning process. The most useful sections for our purpose are the Central Economic Forecast and the Key Economic Sectors, which will support my team to update our strategic planning for the next 5 years. "
Chief Operating Officer, PSV Company, Romania.

BMI's Executive Summary for Romania

[TOP]

Current Account To Remain Key Concern

Romania's vast and widening current account deficit is its largest macroeconomic imbalance. Coming in at 10.3% of GDP in 2006, it is expected to widen over three perecentage points (pps) further by the end of 2007. An associated risk is that, with no capital account controls, foreign investors could suddenly decide to take their money out of Romania if global financial conditions worsen, or a recession threatens in a major world economy, causing the leu and equities to fall sharply. The current exchange rate is already putting strains on homeowners; repossessions and insolvencies would rise sharply in 2008 if the rate headed to RON3.8000/EUR or above. A Christmas flow of remittances, and the prospect of a January rate hike should be currency-supportive in December, but we could well see further short-term weakness before appreciation resumes to our long-term target of RON3.000/EUR. We believe that the unit should return to its appreciating trend later in 2008.

Romanian politics is now dominated by centrists, and the three main parties, the Liberals, the Democrats and splinter group the Liberal Democrats, won roughly equal shares of the European Parliament vote in 2007 as their original alliance did back in 2004. As regards the main parties, the Liberals have lost popularity, and the remaining two factions have gained at their expense, but all three are too small to succeed effectively in running the country alone. Judged on this basis, we believe the battle for 2008's general elections will be fierce and inconclusive. Moreover it is likely that some new alliance of the main parties will once again have to be formed.

From a sectoral perspective, construction has been the chief highlight in the economy for 2007 to date, and we are expecting almost 30% annual growth for the year as a whole, following 37.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for September. Services, including financial services, have also performed well, while the chief drag has been agriculture. A severe drought across South Eastern Europe leads us to anticipate a double-digit contraction of growth in the sector for 2007. This will dim growth below the 6.0% we might have expected following 2006's stellar 7.7% outturn. Industrial output looks set to have peaked in July 2007 with a 7.1% expansion, which had fallen to 3.2% by September. For 2007 as a whole we are expecting a rate of 5.0%.

The ruling Liberal government has recently been accused of backtracking on its core objectives: removing corruption and strengthening institutions such as the judiciary. Even Justice Minister Tudor Chiuariu recently slated the current structure of three separate entities to combat high-level corruption, although this is the structure the EU would like maintained. Laws to investigate highlevel graft are in flux: the government changed the law in October, only to have amendments overthrown by the president in November. Now both the justice and labour ministers face corruption and abuse of office investigations, and Decebal Traian Remes was sacked from his post of agriculture minister in October as a result of a sleaze scandal.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

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