Russia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Russia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Russia. The Russia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Russian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Russia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Russia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Russia Business Forecast Report | Russia's Political Outlook | Russia's Economic Outlook | Russia's Business Environment | Key Russia Industry Sectors | Russia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Russia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Russia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Russia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Russia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Russia's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Russia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Russia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Russia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Russia's Political Outlook, Russia's Economic Outlook, Russia's Business Environment and Russia's Key Industry Sectors.

Russia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Russia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Russia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Russia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Russian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Russia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Russia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Russia's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Russia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Russian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Russian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Russian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Russia's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Russia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Russia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Russian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Russia's Economic Outlook:

How will Russian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Russia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Russian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Russia Economic Outlook Contents

The Russia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Russia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Russian government views. Underpinning our Russia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Russia

  • Economic Activity in Russia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Russia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Russia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Russia; Russian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Russia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Russia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Russian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Russia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Russia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Russian government economic policy

Russia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Russia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Russia.

Russia Business Environment Contents

  • Russia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Russia, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Russia
    Competitiveness of Russia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Russia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Russia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Russia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Russia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Russia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Russian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Russia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Russia's Key Industry Sectors - Russian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Russia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Russia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Russia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Russia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Russia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Russia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Russia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" I personally value the Economic Forecast and the Key Economic Sectors sections. I generally review the SWOT analysis of these, and if I see anything that concerns me I will then dig deeper into the meat of the articles. Having the SWOT sections and the Executive Summary allows me to stay in touch with the changes within Russia without it being a time consuming process. "
Marketing Manager, John Deere, Russia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Russia

[TOP]

Putin To Remain In Control

We continue to be sanguine on Russia's political risk and economic outlook over the long term, with developments through 2007 suggesting that strong growth, government policy continuity and macroeconomic stabilisation are likely to remain in place going forward. This will be underpinned by the continuation of President Vladimir Putin in a prominent and influential government position after he steps down from the presidency in March 2008. Not only will this ensure that the government's pro-market and fiscally responsible policies continue, but also that plans for a major infrastructure investment programme are likely to be fulfilled. This programme, anticipated to be worth US$1.0trn over 10 years will be a major factor driving the economy in the future. Capital investments have already begun to accelerate and we expect this trend to continue, especially as the government moves to liberalise several major strategic sectors of the economy.

By running for the United Russia Party in the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 2007, President Putin has delivered a clear signal that he will remain a prominent political force in Moscow after he is constitutionally required to step down from the presidency in March 2008. There are several key implications of his decision. First, it solidifies the position of the United Russia Party as the clearly dominant party apparatus in the Russian political system. Second, by running for the legislature, Putin has made a signal that he is setting himself up to be the country's next prime minister, ending speculation that he would seek a position of influence outside of government. Third, it raises the likelihood that a low profile person will be Putin's likely successor in the Kremlin. Regardless of the changes in positions, we stress that the core policy implications remain unchanged, with policy continuity expected going forward.

Russian economic growth continues to impress, with GDP growth forecast to remain above 5.0% through to 2012. Strong investments and private consumption growth are expected to stay as the main drivers of the economy, in line with a sharp uptick in planned government expenditure growth and continued increases in private wealth. That said, we caution that high capacity utilisation will weigh on growth going forward, with inflationary pressures and a narrowing of the current account deficit a likely implication.

While Russia's business environment rating has fallen to 46.8 in our revised ratings system, we stress that the core indications of the evaluation remain unchanged. On the one hand, Russia's business environment remains buoyed by high labour market and physical infrastructure. That said, its low level of market orientation and institutional development continue to weigh on the country's score. While we expect improvements over the long term as the government moves to push for further market reforms, we caution that the process will likely be slow going, especially as Moscow continues to show favouritism to local firms in the energy sector.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.