South Africa Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The South Africa Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in South Africa. The South Africa Business Forecast Report helps businesses with South African market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in South Africa and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of South Africa's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the South Africa Business Forecast Report | South Africa's Political Outlook | South Africa's Economic Outlook | South Africa's Business Environment | Key South Africa Industry Sectors | South Africa BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the South Africa Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of South Africa's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in South Africa, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of South Africa's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise South Africa's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in South Africa's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in South Africa, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The South Africa Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: South Africa's Political Outlook, South Africa's Economic Outlook, South Africa's Business Environment and South Africa's Key Industry Sectors.

South Africa's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in South Africa over the next 5 years?

BMI's South Africa Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

South Africa Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the South African Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing South Africa.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for South Africa
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for South Africa's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in South Africa
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the South African government, assessing threats to the continuity of South African economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • South African Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in South Africa's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark South Africa's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in South Africa, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the South African government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

South Africa's Economic Outlook:

How will South African economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for South Africa through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate South African growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

South Africa Economic Outlook Contents

The South Africa Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for South Africa, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against South African government views. Underpinning our South Africa forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in South Africa

  • Economic Activity in South Africa
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in South Africa
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in South Africa
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in South Africa; South African currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in South Africa
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • South African External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for South Africa and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic South Africa database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of South African government economic policy

South Africa's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is South Africa's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in South Africa.

South Africa Business Environment Contents

  • South Africa's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for South Africa, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for South Africa
    Competitiveness of South Africa's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in South Africa's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with South Africa
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

South Africa's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in South Africa will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the South African market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in South Africa's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of South Africa's Key Industry Sectors - South African Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in South Africa
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in South Africa; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for South Africa
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in South Africa's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in South Africa's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The South Africa Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in South Africa.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" I've found BMI's Business Forecast Reports most informative & helpful with pertinent information at a level that supports both strategic intent as well as more short term initiatives. "
Managing Director, Essilor South Africa Pty Ltd, South Africa.

BMI's Executive Summary for South Africa

[TOP]

Economy To Remain Solid

In case of Jacob Zuma's victory as the president of the African National Congress (ANC), which would significantly boost his chances of winning the national presidency in 2009, investors will be increasingly anxious about the possible future policy implications. A key concern is Zuma's close association with the left, in particular with the Congress of South African Unions (COSATU), and it is feared that once in power, Zuma will have to repay his political debt in the form of populist spending measures and greater protectionism for the economy. Despite policy uncertainty, we maintain our core scenario that the South African economy is unlikely to experience any major repercussions in the event of a Zuma victory, projecting sound macroeconomic fundamentals and average real GDP growth of 6% over our five-year forecast period.

Our positive outlook is based on the belief that Zuma is not a staunch socialist himself, and we expect that his close ties with the trade unions and the communist party over the past two years have been political rather than ideological, which is likely to limit the input of socialist ideas into the policy making process. Furthermore we strongly believe that Zuma recognises the importance of stable macroeconomic policies and is aware of South Africa's heavy dependence on FDI, as well as portfolio inflows, which will leave his administration only little room for populist experiments Political risks aside, we expect the South African rand to appreciate slightly in the short term, mainly on the back of further monetary tightening at the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on December 6 and possibly on January 31. In the longer term, however, we forecast that the rand is likely to weaken to ZAR7.50/US$ and ZAR7.80/US$ at the end of 2008 and 2009, respectively. In our view, apart from a large current account deficit of 6.7% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009, monetary easing from H208 onwards will be the main driver of currency depreciation in the years ahead.

The potentially negative effects of the international credit crunch on capital inflows and the ongoing risk of further volatility will constitute the main threat to private investment and growth in the medium term. In particular, private investment has been holding up strongly over the first three quarters of 2007, with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rising by 15.0% y-o-y in real terms in Q307 (slightly down from 15.8% y-o-y in Q207 but up from 14.4% y-o-y in Q306). Yet a drop in investor confidence and FDI inflows would put downside pressure on domestic investment and therefore dampen the domestic growth outlook over the coming year.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.