South Korea Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The South Korea Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in South Korea. The South Korea Business Forecast Report helps businesses with South Korean market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in South Korea and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of South Korea's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the South Korea Business Forecast Report | South Korea's Political Outlook | South Korea's Economic Outlook | South Korea's Business Environment | Key South Korea Industry Sectors | South Korea BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the South Korea Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of South Korea's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in South Korea, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of South Korea's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise South Korea's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in South Korea's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in South Korea, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The South Korea Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: South Korea's Political Outlook, South Korea's Economic Outlook, South Korea's Business Environment and South Korea's Key Industry Sectors.

South Korea's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in South Korea over the next 5 years?

BMI's South Korea Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

South Korea Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the South Korean Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing South Korea.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for South Korea
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for South Korea's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in South Korea
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the South Korean government, assessing threats to the continuity of South Korean economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • South Korean Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in South Korea's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark South Korea's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in South Korea, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the South Korean government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

South Korea's Economic Outlook:

How will South Korean economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for South Korea through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate South Korean growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

South Korea Economic Outlook Contents

The South Korea Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for South Korea, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against South Korean government views. Underpinning our South Korea forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in South Korea

  • Economic Activity in South Korea
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in South Korea
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in South Korea
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in South Korea; South Korean currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in South Korea
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in South Korea
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • South Korean External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for South Korea and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic South Korea database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of South Korean government economic policy

South Korea's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is South Korea's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in South Korea.

South Korea Business Environment Contents

  • South Korea's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for South Korea, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for South Korea
    Competitiveness of South Korea's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in South Korea's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in South Korea
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with South Korea
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

South Korea's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in South Korea will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the South Korean market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in South Korea's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of South Korea's Key Industry Sectors - South Korean Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in South Korea
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in South Korea; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for South Korea
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in South Korea's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in South Korea's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The South Korea Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in South Korea.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

"We find the Risks Rating section the most interesting, due to the useful content and its ability to evaluate scenarios and events, which helps us to reinforce our strategic plan."
General Manager, Yantai Agrati Fasteners Co., Ltd, China.

BMI's Executive Summary for South Korea

[TOP]

Lee Victory Would Bring Higher Growth

Domestic politics will remain at the forefront in the first quarter of 2008 as the newly-elected president will attempt to secure a parliamentary majority in the National Assembly elections in April. We are anticipating Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party (GNP) to win the presidential election on December 19, heralding an era of more business-friendly policies than under the administration before him. While Lee's pledges of cutting taxes and boosting investment are likely to be conducive to higher growth, we believe some of the more expansionist policies could increase risks to macroeconomic stability and the fiscal balance. Meanwhile, the inter-Korean summit in October 2007 has opened a window of opportunity to deepen co-operation with the North.

We believe the December 19 presidential election is Lee Myung-bak's to lose as he was leading his main centre-left opponent Chung Dong-young by 35-40 percentage points in opinion polls in mid-October. The initial priority of Lee, the GNP candidate, will be to help his party win a majority in the parliamentary elections in April 2008. Lee is then likely to turn to implementing his economic programme of tax cuts and boosting investment. It is, however, likely that some of his most radical policies will be pinned down by opposition within his own party and deteriorating economic conditions as we believe the economic cycle will peak in 2008.

We believe the present high economic momentum will be carried over into 2008, with our GDP growth forecast standing at 5.1%. The strong won and tighter monetary policy will dampen economic activity somewhat and serve to keep inflation in the Bank of Korea's 2.5-3.5% comfort zone. Economic growth has so far been propelled by high productivity growth and we believe there is further scope for this, given that South Korea still lags behind countries like Japan and the US significantly in productivity. South Korea's rapidly ageing population is, however, a major threat to economic growth in the longer term and one that the next president will need to address.

With Lee Myung-bak looking set to win the presidency and the GNP likely to move on to win the parliamentary elections in April 2008, we foresee an improvement of the South Korean business environment. Lee has pledged to cut down regulation and lower taxes in order to boost economic growth, which would, if implemented, constitute a marked break with the interventionist economic policies of outgoing president Roh Moo-hyun. Furthermore, ongoing free trade negotiations with China and the EU should widen the opportunities of South Korea's important export sector.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.