Sri Lanka Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Sri Lanka. The Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Sri Lankan market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sri Lanka and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Sri Lanka's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report | Sri Lanka's Political Outlook | Sri Lanka's Economic Outlook | Sri Lanka's Business Environment | Key Sri Lanka Industry Sectors | Sri Lanka BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sri Lanka's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Sri Lanka, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Sri Lanka's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Sri Lanka's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Sri Lanka's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sri Lanka, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Sri Lanka's Political Outlook, Sri Lanka's Economic Outlook, Sri Lanka's Business Environment and Sri Lanka's Key Industry Sectors.

Sri Lanka's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sri Lanka over the next 5 years?

BMI's Sri Lanka Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Sri Lanka Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sri Lankan Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sri Lanka.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Sri Lanka
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Sri Lanka's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Sri Lanka
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Sri Lankan government, assessing threats to the continuity of Sri Lankan economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Sri Lankan Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Sri Lanka's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Sri Lanka's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Sri Lanka, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Sri Lankan government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Sri Lanka's Economic Outlook:

How will Sri Lankan economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sri Lanka through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Sri Lankan growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook Contents

The Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Sri Lanka, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Sri Lankan government views. Underpinning our Sri Lanka forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Sri Lanka

  • Economic Activity in Sri Lanka
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Sri Lanka
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Sri Lanka
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Sri Lanka; Sri Lankan currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Sri Lanka
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Sri Lankan External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Sri Lanka and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Sri Lanka database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Sri Lankan government economic policy

Sri Lanka's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Sri Lanka's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka Business Environment Contents

  • Sri Lanka's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Sri Lanka, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Sri Lanka
    Competitiveness of Sri Lanka's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Sri Lanka's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Sri Lanka
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Sri Lanka's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Sri Lanka will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Sri Lankan market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Sri Lanka's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Sri Lanka's Key Industry Sectors - Sri Lankan Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Sri Lanka
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Sri Lanka; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Sri Lanka
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Sri Lanka's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Sri Lanka's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Sri Lanka.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" The most useful part is the Central Economic Forecast. It helps us in evaluating the future prospects for the country, as well as the likely trends on the per Capita Income, which would reflect the spending power for the consumers. "
Procter & Gamble, Sri Lanka.

BMI's Executive Summary for Sri Lanka

[TOP]

2008: Another Year Of War

Sri Lanka's civil war looks set to continue in 2008, with no end in sight, and this will prevent the economy from maximising its potential. Although Sri Lanka's military forces branded the killing of S.P. Thamilselvan, the leader of the political wing of the rebel Tamil Tigers, as yet another victory, in reality this will only push the chances of peace further away. The Tigers' earlier resolve not to settle for anything less than an independent homeland for the ethnic Tamil people has strengthened, and they are in no mood to compromise. Meanwhile, despite coming under increasing international pressure over its human rights abuses, the Sri Lankan government shows little sign of responding to criticism. This will jeopardise further development aid.

Although President Mahinda Rajapaksa will remain secure in office until late 2011, when his term runs out, his government will face pressure to call an early election, because his coalition's majority in parliament is prone to defections. The main opposition United National Party will push for early general elections, and if it prevails, the country could be faced with a period of political 'cohabitation', which could inhibit policymaking and new initiatives. Meanwhile, the war situation has provided the justification for new emergency regulations, which have been used to silence journalists who expose human rights abuses and corruption, or otherwise question the government's handling of the conflict.

Against this backdrop, economic growth, which we forecast to slow to 6.0% in 2007 from 7.4% in 2006, risks decelerating further, to 5.9% in 2008. There are several different ways in which the economy is hurt by war. Firstly, it deters investors and tourists. Secondly, the war has necessitated higher defence spending, thus straining the budget deficit, which has consistently been around 8.0% of GDP – very high by international standards. Significantly, money assigned to defence outlays could be used to upgrade the island's infrastructure. Thirdly, the war is blocking much needed international donor aid. Nonetheless, with the conflict still generally confined to the north and east of Sri Lanka, the economy should manage to expand by between 5.5% and 6.0% annually for the remainder of our forecast period to 2012.

Finally, the war also negatively affects Sri Lanka's already weak business environment, which is characterised by high taxes, excessive government regulation – especially in the labour market – and partial restrictions on foreign investment. BMI gives Sri Lanka's business environment a score of 43.5, ranking 82nd out of 167 countries surveyed. Sri Lanka scores 35.6 (ranked 109th) on infrastructure, 48.9 (70th) on institutions, and 37.5 (133rd) on market orientation. Indeed, President Rajapaksa's government, in power since late 2005, has been less keen on market-friendly reforms than its predecessor. The Tigers' threats to target economic infrastructure will also be problematic.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.