Sudan Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Sudan Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Sudan. The Sudan Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Sudanese market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sudan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Sudan's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Sudan Business Forecast Report | Sudan's Political Outlook | Sudan's Economic Outlook | Sudan's Business Environment | Key Sudan Industry Sectors | Sudan BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Sudan Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sudan's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Sudan, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Sudan's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Sudan's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Sudan's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sudan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Sudan Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Sudan's Political Outlook, Sudan's Economic Outlook, Sudan's Business Environment and Sudan's Key Industry Sectors.

Sudan's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sudan over the next 5 years?

BMI's Sudan Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Sudan Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sudanese Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sudan.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Sudan
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Sudan's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Sudan
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Sudanese government, assessing threats to the continuity of Sudanese economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Sudanese Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Sudan's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Sudan's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Sudan, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Sudanese government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Sudan's Economic Outlook:

How will Sudanese economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sudan through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Sudanese growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Sudan Economic Outlook Contents

The Sudan Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Sudan, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Sudanese government views. Underpinning our Sudan forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Sudan

  • Economic Activity in Sudan
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Sudan
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Sudan
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Sudan; Sudanese currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Sudan
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Sudan
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Sudanese External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Sudan and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Sudan database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Sudanese government economic policy

Sudan's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Sudan's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Sudan.

Sudan Business Environment Contents

  • Sudan's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Sudan, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Sudan
    Competitiveness of Sudan's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Sudan's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Sudan
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Sudan
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Sudan's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Sudan will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Sudanese market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Sudan's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Sudan's Key Industry Sectors - Sudanese Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Sudan
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Sudan; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Sudan
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Sudan's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Sudan's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Sudan Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Sudan.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The most useful section of BMI's report for my business is the Economic Outlook, which contains specific details of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to my business from within the country. This helps me, when planning for the future to reach the widest market and also gives me the edge in order to overtake my competitors. "
Chairman, Bavarian Auto Trading. BMW Egypt, Egypt.

BMI's Executive Summary for Sudan

[TOP]

Shaky Peace

Politically, the situation is still tense. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between Khartoum and South Sudan continues to hold, but further political crises are likely to arise. However, we believe that the lucrative revenues which both sides now garner from oil should prevent a return to full scale war. Internationally, the continued fragmentation in Sudan's Darfur provinces and beyond has further soured relations between Sudan and neighbouring Chad, and made it even more difficult for UN peacekeepers to operate. Nevertheless, Khartoum retains a strong grip on power at the centre and can rely on China to prevent genuinely damaging sanctions. On the economic front, real economic growth should remain above 10% in 2008, and the current account deficit is likely to stay high. The country's static exchange rate is likely to negatively impact the country's ability to control liquidity, presenting upside and downside risks to our 6.5% end-2008 inflation forecast.

The fragile coalition government faces many challenges. The border demarcation has obvious potential for fall-out, particularly as over 70% of Sudan's oil production takes place in the south, and the formation of joint military units poses another major risk, as relations between the North and South forces are hardly friendly. A UN peace-keeping mission will take over from the African Union in Darfur at the beginning of 2008, but there is little expectation that the security situation there will improve rapidly. Sudan has been able to obstruct the UN partly because it has retained the strong support of China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

We are forecasting real GDP growth of 10.7%, 9.3% and 8.6% in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. The economy should continue to benefit from expansion of the oil sector, but non-oil growth looks to be strong as well. Major capital inflows, necessary to feed Sudan's investment, have contributed to a large current account deficit. We forecast the deficit will rise to 17.2% of GDP in 2009, before beginning to fall slightly to 16.0% in 2012. On the fiscal side of things, we see sustained deficits, but note moves to diversify the tax base away from oil, and control spending.

The business environment continues to be hampered by a relatively small work force with a heavy regulatory burden, weak security in large parts of the country, widespread corruption and an ineffective judiciary. However, oil wealth has fuelled massive investment in infrastructure, which could lead to major changes within a few years. Perhaps most importantly, during 2007 there were various attempts by the US to add to its sanctions which have been in place since 1997, with new measures introduced in May 2007. However, European powers have been more open to co-operation and Sudan has continued to benefit from its very strong relationship with China.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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