Thailand Businessforecast Industry Forecast

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The Thailand Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Thailand. The Thailand Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Thai market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Thailand and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Thailand's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses for the Thailand Business Forecast Report

Forecast the pace and stability of Thailand's economic and industry growth through end-2012
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Thailand, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
Assess critical shortcomings of Thailand's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
Contextualise Thailand's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
Target business opportunities in Thailand's high-growth industry sectors
Evaluate external threats to doing business in Thailand, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Thailand Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Thailand's Political Outlook, Thailand's Economic Outlook, Thailand's Business Environment and Thailand's Key Industry Sectors.

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Thailand's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Thailand over the next 5 years?

BMI's Thailand Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Thailand Political Outlook Contents

SWOT Analysis for the Thai Market
Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Thailand.
Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Thailand
BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Thailand's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
Current Administration and Policy-making in Thailand
BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Thai government, assessing threats to the continuity of Thai economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
Thai Foreign Policy
BMI examines key trends and shifts in Thailand's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

Benchmark Thailand's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Thailand, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
Gain valuable insights into the Thai government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Thailand's Economic Outlook:

How will Thai economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Thailand through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Thai growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Thailand Economic Outlook Contents

The Thailand Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Thailand, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Thai government views. Underpinning our Thailand forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Thailand

Economic Activity in Thailand
Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
Fiscal Policy in Thailand
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
Monetary Policy in Thailand
Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Thailand; Thai currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
Balance of Payments in Thailand
Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand
Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
Thai External Debt
Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Thailand and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Thailand database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Thai government economic policy

Thailand's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Thailand's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Thailand.

Thailand Business Environment Contents

Thailand's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Thailand, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
Country Competitiveness for Thailand
Competitiveness of Thailand's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Thailand's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand
Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
Foreign Trade with Thailand
Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Thailand's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Thailand will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Thai market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Thailand's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Thailand's Key Industry Sectors - Thai Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

Latest Developments in Thailand
Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Thailand; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
5-year Industry Forecast for Thailand
Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Thailand's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Thailand's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Thailand Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Thailand.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd

" The most useful section of the report is the Key Economic Sectors for each particular country. As a manufacturer, it provides us with information we need on the major sectors for the country. We can then estimate the local vendors, competitors etc, which might affect our investment or market plan. "

Managing Director, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Malaysia.

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BMI's Executive Summary for Thailand

[TOP]

Private Sector Recovery Forthcoming

The Thai economy has yet to recover from the disturbances of the past year's political turmoil. Fortunately however, a healthy global environment – resulting from robust growth in China and the EU – has allowed the country to lean on its export industry for support. Therefore, with domestic spending and investment still weak, Thailand's exports have remained the primary engine of the country's economic growth. As we discuss in this report, this may not be sustainable for the rest of the year, especially given that the effects of the global credit crunch could impact on external demand. However, in our view, a revival in private sector activity should begin in Q208, but only if the December election process passes by smoothly. We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 4.0% for 2007, a full percentage point lower than the previous year's growth rate, before a recovery in 2008 boosts the growth rate to 4.8%, and then an average of 5.2% during our five-year forecast period.

General Sonthi Boonyaratglin's appointment as deputy prime minister in charge of national security provides the retired army commander with a springboard into the next coalition government. Although his success in this area is far from given, his participation in the political process raises some questions about Thailand's democratic credentials in the long term. The general's political ambitions have always been clear, and the latest development is of little surprise, but it may prove destabilising nonetheless. Although General Sonthi will retain no official ties to the military, convincing the opposition that he is not taking advantage of the current political crisis to advance the role of the army will be prove difficult.

Thailand's economy accelerated by 4.4% y-o-y in Q207, up from a revised 4.2% growth rate in Q107, buoyed primarily by strong growth in the export sector. However, weak domestic demand, expectations of slowing export growth in the second half of the year and a low inflation environment leaves room for further interest rate cuts following the Bank of Thailand (BoT)'s latest decision to keep the benchmark rate on hold at October's policy meeting. Our core outlook for the Thai economy is that it will remain weak until a revival in private sector activity takes place, which we expect to happen around Q208.

Thailand's business environment score has improved following the implementation of our new business environment ratings methodology. It now scores 59.5, compared with 56.1 previously, due primarily to an improvement in its infrastructure sub-rating. Thailand scores 59.5 in this category, up from 51.2 earlier, while its institutions score has risen to 60.1 (from 59.2) and its market orientation rating has dropped to 59.0 (from 59.9). The overall improvement in Thailand's ratings comes at a time when the business environment within Asia has deteriorated, on average, and the disparity between the best and worst performing countries has widened.

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Read about our other Business Forecast Reports

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.