UAE Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The UAE Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in the UAE. The UAE Business Forecast Report helps businesses with UAE market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in the UAE and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of the UAE's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the UAE Business Forecast Report | The UAE's Political Outlook | The UAE's Economic Outlook | The UAE's Business Environment | Key UAE Industry Sectors | The UAE BMI's Executive Summary | Our Middle East Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the UAE Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of the UAE's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in the UAE, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of the UAE's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise the UAE's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in the UAE's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in the UAE, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The UAE Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: The UAE's Political Outlook, The UAE's Economic Outlook, The UAE's Business Environment and The UAE's Key Industry Sectors.

The UAE's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in the UAE over the next 5 years?

BMI's UAE Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

The UAE Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the UAE Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the UAE.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for the UAE
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for the UAE's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in the UAE
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the UAE government, assessing threats to the continuity of UAE economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • UAE Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in the UAE's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark the UAE's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in the UAE, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the UAE government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

The UAE's Economic Outlook:

How will UAE economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for the UAE through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate UAE growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

The UAE Economic Outlook Contents

The UAE Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for the UAE, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against UAE government views. Underpinning our UAE forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in the UAE

  • Economic Activity in the UAE
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in the UAE
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in the UAE
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in the UAE; UAE currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in the UAE
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in the UAE
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • UAE External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for the UAE and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic the UAE database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of UAE government economic policy

The UAE's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is the UAE's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in the UAE.

The UAE Business Environment Contents

  • the UAE's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for the UAE, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for the UAE
    Competitiveness of the UAE's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in the UAE's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in the UAE
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with the UAE
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

The UAE's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in the UAE will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the UAE market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in the UAE's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of the UAE's Key Industry Sectors - UAE Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in the UAE
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in the UAE; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for the UAE
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in the UAE's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in the UAE's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The UAE Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in the UAE.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" Probably the most impartial bespoke business publication I have read to date. Easy to read, digest and utilise in my day-to-day business-making decisions. "
Team F International Limited, Australia.

BMI's Executive Summary for the UAE

[TOP]

Another Good Year Ahead

As we move into 2008, our major concerns for the UAE are the same as they were this time last year: the possibility of a sharp property market correction, and rampant inflation. While we do see the current property boom as unsustainable, we view any cyclical decline as a healthy development, bringing rental prices back down gradually, with what we hope will be minimal economic disruption, cushioned by government spending. On the inflation side, we are less convinced, believing that some form of currency adjustment will be necessary at some point. As we discuss in this report, this is not just an economic but a social and political problem, and one which will not go away for some time, against a backdrop of lower interest rates, dollar weakness and still high oil prices.

Politically, the UAE remains very stable. Relations with key ally the US continue to work to both states' advantage, and the regional outlook has also improved. Developments on the US-Iran question continue to back up our view that there will be a diplomatic solution to the nuclear dispute, and the UAE has no major quibbles with any of its neighbours. With the GCC ministers having announced that the states will take individual monetary policy directions, there does not seem to be any bad feeling about the various departures from the currency union plans. Political risks do stem from inflation, though, and the deteriorating living standards associated with it.

Economically, the overall picture is very positive: strong growth, robust balance of payments positions, fiscal surpluses and negligible debt will persist throughout the forecast period. Ongoing financial reforms will boost the UAE's attractiveness to investors (both in FDI and portfolio terms), and we are bullish the country's two benchmark stock indices, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. We are largely sanguine about the long-awaited housing market correction. The only blip on the horizon is of course the inflation issue, but we see this abating over the longer term.

The UAE's ascent within our updated business environment ratings matrix comes as no surprise, and backs up our view that its business environment is a key competitive advantage within the region. The country predictably remains at the top of the tree, with a score of 64.9, with a very impressive rating of 70.9 showing that market orientation is the country's key strength. Infrastructure too has improved, and is set to do so further with the construction of a 350-kilometre national railway network to ease road congestion between Abu Dhabi and the east coast, among other capital expenditure projects.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.