Uganda Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Uganda Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Uganda. The Uganda Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Uganda and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Uganda's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Uganda Business Forecast Report | Uganda's Political Outlook | Uganda's Economic Outlook | Uganda's Business Environment | Key Uganda Industry Sectors | Uganda BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Uganda Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Uganda, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Uganda's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Uganda's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Uganda's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Uganda, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Uganda Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Uganda's Political Outlook, Uganda's Economic Outlook, Uganda's Business Environment and Uganda's Key Industry Sectors.

Uganda's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Uganda over the next 5 years?

BMI's Uganda Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Uganda Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Uganda.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Uganda
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Uganda's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Uganda
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the government, assessing threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Uganda's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Uganda's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Uganda, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Uganda's Economic Outlook:

How will economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Uganda through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Uganda Economic Outlook Contents

The Uganda Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Uganda, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against government views. Underpinning our Uganda forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Uganda

  • Economic Activity in Uganda
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Uganda
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Uganda
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Uganda; currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Uganda
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Uganda
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Uganda and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Uganda database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy

Uganda's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Uganda's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Uganda.

Uganda Business Environment Contents

  • Uganda's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Uganda, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Uganda
    Competitiveness of Uganda's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Uganda's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Uganda
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Uganda
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Uganda's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Uganda will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Uganda's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Uganda's Key Industry Sectors - Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Uganda
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Uganda; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Uganda
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Uganda's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Uganda's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Uganda Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Uganda.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" Out of all the research publications that my organisation has purchased and used recently, BMI's is by far the most comprehensive. The reports are underpinned by in-depth study of the industry and an unparalleled analytical process. We use the reports to obtain an understanding of the underlying economic situation within our country, as well as looking at opportunities for the future. "
Director, Capital Africa Group, South Africa.

BMI's Executive Summary for Uganda

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Weak Infrastructure To Cloud Long-Term Growth Potential

Despite the signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement on February 23 between the Ugandan government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in Juba, Southern Sudan, we believe that the disarmament progress will be slow at best over the course of 2008. This is mainly because several preconditions for a successful permanent accord remain largely unaddressed and no concrete provisions for rebel disarmament and demobilisation have been made. Aside from the possible indictment of LRA leaders by the International Criminal Court, an internal power struggle within the LRA could complicate the peace process going forward. That said, Uganda's macroeconomic outlook is likely to remain positive over our five-year forecast period, with our 2008 and 2009 real GDP growth projections currently standing at 7.2% and 7.3%, respectively, (slightly up from an estimated 7.0% in 2007). Nevertheless, weak infrastructure, a worsening electricity crisis and limited access to credit will weigh on the country's growth prospects over the longer term.

Apart from the slow peace negotiations with LRA rebels, the Ugandan government will remain preoccupied with easing tensions between itself and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government along their shared western border. In fact, a potential conflict with the DRC would pose a far greater risk to political stability and investor confidence than rebel activity in the northern parts of the country. In our view, the overall conflict is likely to remain within the diplomatic realm. Yet should the oil reserves in the Lake Albert basin turn out to be larger than initially anticipated, the two countries will need a solid political settlement in order to prevent a potential escalation of the crisis.

Uganda's current account deficit is likely to increase further to 6.6% of GDP in 2008, slightly up from an estimated 5.9% in 2007. In our view, surging import demand is likely to represent the main propellant of the shortfall over the coming years. Indeed, aside from rising international commodity prices (in particular crude oil), strong real GDP growth significantly raised the demand for capital good imports, which has led to a renewed uptick in the current account deficit since 2004. Considering that real GDP growth is expected to peak at 7.3% in 2009 and oil prices should remain relatively lofty, we forecast that the shortfall will decrease only slightly to 6.4% of GDP that year.

The Ugandan government announced in the beginning of February that it will lift a ban on exploration licensing after a new national oil and gas policy has been approved. In September 2007, the government decided to temporarily suspend all negotiations with oil companies seeking new oil exploration licences in the country until a coherent energy law had been composed and passed by the parliament. As well as clarifying the fiscal regime, the law is intended to ensure that the country's potential oil wealth does not become a curse. While the government has not released any details on what the new policy will entail or when it is likely to be approved, the energy ministry stated that it is hoping to launch a competitive bidding round before the end of Q108.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.