Ukraine Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Ukraine Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Ukraine. The Ukraine Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Ukrainian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ukraine and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ukraine's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Ukraine Business Forecast Report | Ukraine's Political Outlook | Ukraine's Economic Outlook | Ukraine's Business Environment | Key Ukraine Industry Sectors | Ukraine BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Ukraine Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Ukraine's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Ukraine, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Ukraine's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Ukraine's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Ukraine's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ukraine, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Ukraine Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Ukraine's Political Outlook, Ukraine's Economic Outlook, Ukraine's Business Environment and Ukraine's Key Industry Sectors.

Ukraine's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Ukraine over the next 5 years?

BMI's Ukraine Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Ukraine Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ukrainian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ukraine.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Ukraine
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Ukraine's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Ukraine
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Ukrainian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Ukrainian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Ukraine's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Ukraine's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Ukraine, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Ukrainian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Ukraine's Economic Outlook:

How will Ukrainian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ukraine through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Ukrainian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Ukraine Economic Outlook Contents

The Ukraine Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Ukraine, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Ukrainian government views. Underpinning our Ukraine forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Ukraine

  • Economic Activity in Ukraine
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Ukraine
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Ukraine
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Ukraine; Ukrainian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Ukraine
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Ukrainian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Ukraine and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Ukraine database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Ukrainian government economic policy

Ukraine's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Ukraine's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Ukraine.

Ukraine Business Environment Contents

  • Ukraine's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Ukraine, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Ukraine
    Competitiveness of Ukraine's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Ukraine's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Ukraine
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Ukraine's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Ukraine will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Ukrainian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Ukraine's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Ukraine's Key Industry Sectors - Ukrainian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Ukraine
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Ukraine; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Ukraine
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Ukraine's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Ukraine's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Ukraine Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Ukraine.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" All aspects of the Risk Ratings, the Central Economic Forecast and the Key Economic Sectors sections are valuable because of the wide diversity of information and the interesting approach to economic problems. "
Chairman of The Board, Cemex Polska Sp. Z O.o., Poland.

BMI's Executive Summary for the Ukraine

[TOP]

Deteriorating Terms Of Trade To Weigh On C/A

Beyond our current view that a new coalition government in Ukraine will remain shaky, we are particularly concerned about the outcome of ongoing natural gas price negotiations with Russia's Gazprom, and the impact sharply rising gas import costs will have on Ukraine's ballooning current account deficit. Ukraine's current account deficit is forecast to surge to 4.0% of GDP in 2007, up from just 1.5% y-o-y in 2006, as Ukraine's merchandise trade account remains largely reliant on a few key traded commodities. While a preliminary deal with Gazprom seems to suggest that US$160 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas is a realistic price for 2008 (up from US$130 in 2007), talks are ongoing and are unlikely to be resolved prior to the formation of a new coalition government, and a first parliamentary session being held in parliament. Our core scenario currently remains in play, in which Yulia Tymoshenko will re-assume the premiership. This is likely to see Ukraine's terms of trade with Russia deteriorate somewhat in line with Russia's effort to increase the price Ukraine pays for natural gas towards international market prices. In light of this view, we believe that US$160 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas may yet prove to be an optimistic scenario.

As ever, the Ukrainian political scene remains fractious. It looks as though there will be no early let up in the political noise, which is currently afflicting Ukraine, and preventing any meaningful reform from taking place. While a formal coalition government has yet to be announced at the time of writing, our core scenario remains in place, with an 'orange' coalition government likely to emerge after the first parliamentary session expected in mid-November, with opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko reassuming the premiership.

We hold to our existing view that Ukrainian economic growth will remain robust over the long term on the back of a booming manufacturing sector and rising industrial output, despite ongoing political volatility in the country and the dissolution of a parliament since March 2007. Indeed, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.0% in 2007, a slight slowdown from 7.1% in 2006, and expect GDP growth to remain above 5.0% until 2010, averaging annual growth of 5.2% through to the end of our forecast period. We have recently revised up our industrial output forecast for end-2007 to 6.8% from a previous 5.5%, as monthly industrial output growth has been averaging 10.6% y-o-y during the period of January-September 2007.

We are encouraged by the announcement from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) that a group of Ukrainian banks is planning to launch a new interbank lending rate in an effort to create a transparent benchmark for corporate local debt issuance. With a transparent interbank lending reference rate, Ukraine's banking and corporate sector will be more inclined to raise money on domestic markets, with growing prospects for issuing syndicated loans with more long-term maturity. Furthermore, we believe that the availability of more sophisticated local financial instruments will likely attract more FDI over the long term.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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Company Research
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