Venezuela Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Venezuela Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Venezuela. The Venezuela Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Venezuelan market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Venezuela and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Venezuela's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Venezuela Business Forecast Report | Venezuela's Political Outlook | Venezuela's Economic Outlook | Venezuela's Business Environment | Key Venezuela Industry Sectors | Venezuela BMI's Executive Summary | Our North & South America Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Venezuela Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Venezuela's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Venezuela, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Venezuela's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Venezuela's country risks against Latin America regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Venezuela's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Venezuela, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Venezuela Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Venezuela's Political Outlook, Venezuela's Economic Outlook, Venezuela's Business Environment and Venezuela's Key Industry Sectors.

Venezuela's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Venezuela over the next 5 years?

BMI's Venezuela Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Venezuela Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Venezuelan Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Venezuela.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Venezuela
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Venezuela's risk are compared with Latin America regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Venezuela
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Venezuelan government, assessing threats to the continuity of Venezuelan economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Venezuelan Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Venezuela's foreign relations and alignments with Latin America neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Venezuela's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Venezuela, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Venezuelan government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Venezuela's Economic Outlook:

How will Venezuelan economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Venezuela through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Venezuelan growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Venezuela Economic Outlook Contents

The Venezuela Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Venezuela, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Venezuelan government views. Underpinning our Venezuela forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Venezuela

  • Economic Activity in Venezuela
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Venezuela
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Venezuela
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Venezuela; Venezuelan currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Venezuela
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Venezuela
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Venezuelan External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Venezuela and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Venezuela database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Venezuelan government economic policy

Venezuela's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Venezuela's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Venezuela.

Venezuela Business Environment Contents

  • Venezuela's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Venezuela, benchmarked against ratings for Latin America and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Venezuela
    Competitiveness of Venezuela's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Venezuela's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Venezuela
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Venezuela
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Venezuela's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Venezuela will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Venezuelan market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Venezuela's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Venezuela's Key Industry Sectors - Venezuelan Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Venezuela
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Venezuela; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Venezuela
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Venezuela's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Venezuela's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the North and South America Business Forecast Reports?

The Venezuela Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Venezuela.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

ABB Mexico, SA de CV, American Express Argentina, American Honda Motor Co Inc, Ansa Technologies Ltd, Antigua Commercial Bank, ATCO Structures Inc, Atlas Copco Chilena, Banco de Mexico, BASF Interservicios SA de CV, Bristol Myers Squibb, Carl Zeiss de Mexico SA de CV, Chrysler LLC, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colgate-Palmolive CA, Glaxosmithkline Chile Ltda, Hyatt International, Lafarge SA, Levi Strauss Mexico, Merck SA, Merrill Lynch - Brazil, Siemens S.A. de C.V., Sony Ericsson, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever Caribbean, West Indies Oil Company 

 

"In my job as Planning Manager it is key to be permanently updated on the trends and expectations of the economic performance of the country. BMI's report provides a great overview of how the best economists see the economic future of our country. I am always interested in reading the Central Economic Forecast and in using the Macroeconomic Data and Forecast in my planning process."
Treasury Manager, Janssen Cilag SA, Colombia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Venezuela

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2008: Growing Concerns

President Hugo Chávez looks likely to see his constitutional amendments passed by congress, which will further strengthen his vision of '21st century socialism' in Venezuela, altering the future ideological direction of Venezuelan politics and economics. Growth momentum remains strong following four years of very rapid expansion, though this has largely been fuelled by the government's lavish fiscal expenditure programme, and extremely favourable external conditions. As a result of the administration's unsustainable economic model, consumer price inflation has spiralled and pressure is mounting on the country's currency peg. We believe that real GDP growth will slow significantly to 4.2% in 2008, with major imbalances posing a key risk to economic stability over the forecast period.

Considering Chávez's vision of a socialist society, we believe that Venezuela could take on the characteristics of a communist state over the coming years, severely threatening the country's democratic future. Among other things, the president's sweeping changes to the country's constitution include the abolition of the presidential two-term limit, allowing indefinite re-election as president. This would be a major blow to the opposition and would represent almost insurmountable obstacles to unseating Chávez in six years, assuming that fully democratic elections will still be held at that point.

Venezuela's macroeconomic climate is likely to remain highly unstable over the course of 2008. In our view, the government's lack of coherent monetary and fiscal policies and a potential decline in international oil prices are the greatest threats to sustainable economic growth over the forecast period. The key problem is that the government is implementing little in the way of reform, despite the favourable conditions for change. Inflation still runs close to 20%, and import growth is spiralling as domestic production lags robust growth in demand. Private sector investment is badly needed to set the economy on a sustainable growth path, though increasing state intervention is preventing this from occurring.

Venezuela's frail institutional framework will remain a key weakness of the country's business environment, which is reflected in the country's low ranking in our proprietary business environment ratings. The Chávez administration has accelerated its nationalisation programme, including acquiring a majority stake in key oil ventures. However, there is little doubt that the business environment, especially the protection of property rights, is set to deteriorate over the course of Chávez's second term. This is mainly because the concentration of power at the top levels of government diminishes the effect of checks and balances, thus increasing the scope for arbitrary policy decisions and corruption.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.