Vietnam Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Vietnam Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Vietnam. The Vietnam Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Vietnamese market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Vietnam and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Vietnam's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Vietnam Business Forecast Report | Vietnam's Political Outlook | Vietnam's Economic Outlook | Vietnam's Business Environment | Key Vietnam Industry Sectors | Vietnam BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Vietnam Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Vietnam's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Vietnam, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Vietnam's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Vietnam's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Vietnam's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Vietnam, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Vietnam Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Vietnam's Political Outlook, Vietnam's Economic Outlook, Vietnam's Business Environment and Vietnam's Key Industry Sectors.

Vietnam's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Vietnam over the next 5 years?

BMI's Vietnam Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Vietnam Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Vietnamese Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Vietnam.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Vietnam
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Vietnam's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Vietnam
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Vietnamese government, assessing threats to the continuity of Vietnamese economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Vietnamese Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Vietnam's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Vietnam's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Vietnam, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Vietnamese government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Vietnam's Economic Outlook:

How will Vietnamese economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Vietnam through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Vietnamese growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Vietnam Economic Outlook Contents

The Vietnam Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Vietnam, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Vietnamese government views. Underpinning our Vietnam forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Vietnam

  • Economic Activity in Vietnam
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Vietnam
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Vietnam
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Vietnam; Vietnamese currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Vietnam
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Vietnamese External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Vietnam and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Vietnam database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Vietnamese government economic policy

Vietnam's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Vietnam's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Vietnam.

Vietnam Business Environment Contents

  • Vietnam's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Vietnam, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Vietnam
    Competitiveness of Vietnam's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Vietnam's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Vietnam
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Vietnam's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Vietnam will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Vietnamese market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Vietnam's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Vietnam's Key Industry Sectors - Vietnamese Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Vietnam
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Vietnam; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Vietnam
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Vietnam's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Vietnam's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Vietnam Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Vietnam.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" The most useful section of the report is the Key Economic Sectors for each particular country. As a manufacturer, it provides us with information we need on the major sectors for the country. We can then estimate the local vendors, competitors etc, which might affect our investment or market plan. "
Managing Director, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Malaysia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Vietnam

[TOP]

Another Good Year Ahead

Vietnam's GDP growth should remain above 8% throughout our five-year forecast period, despite the swan song of the domestic oil sector. Manufacturing has now taken over the baton as the mainstay of the economy and the sector should continue to expand on the back of its competitive cost structure. Rising inflation is, however, a threat to continued competitiveness and will be something the government has to deal more aggressively with in 2008. The calls for extended price controls from National Assembly lawmakers have put the government's commitment to further market reforms under the spotlight, and its conduct will be scrutinised by investors. We are, however, confident that the reform path advocated by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will be maintained.

The newly-elected National Assembly is starting to find its feet and has proceeded to scrutinise the fulfilment of socio-economic development plans. The weight laid upon inflation indicates that curbing price growth will be the main focus of the government in the coming year. Battling corruption and upgrading infrastructure will also remain high on the agenda. The crackdown on pro-democracy dissidents ahead of the May 2007 elections should keep political dissent subdued, but opposition to one-party rule will surely re-emerge in the medium to long term. On the foreign policy front, we are expecting a further improvement of relations between Vietnam and the US.

Growth should remain high, as the manufacturing sector expands and public investment in infrastructure continues. Meanwhile, the government's attempts to bring inflation back under control in 2008 will include increased exchange-rate flexibility, as the path of current monetary policy has proved to be problematic to macroeconomic stability. We are forecasting the dong to rise moderately against the US dollar in 2008, but Vietnamese exports will remain competitively priced. Nonetheless, sluggish US demand and a weak dollar remain risks to Vietnam's growth impetus in the short term.

The government will continue to pursue its aim to gradually modernise and turn Vietnam into an industrialised country by 2020. The focus in 2008 will continue to be on infrastructure and the process of converting state-owned companies into shareholder-owned firms. If successful, these efforts should lay the foundations for long-term growth by removing bottlenecks and improving the functionality of the economy. There are, however, doubts about how well-supported the top leadership's reform agenda is within the grassroots of the Communist Party.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.