Zambia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Zambia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Zambia. The Zambia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Zambian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Zambia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Zambia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Zambia Business Forecast Report | Zambia's Political Outlook | Zambia's Economic Outlook | Zambia's Business Environment | Key Zambia Industry Sectors | Zambia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Zambia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Zambia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Zambia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Zambia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Zambia's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Zambia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Zambia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Zambia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Zambia's Political Outlook, Zambia's Economic Outlook, Zambia's Business Environment and Zambia's Key Industry Sectors.

Zambia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Zambia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Zambia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Zambia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Zambian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Zambia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Zambia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Zambia's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Zambia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Zambian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Zambian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Zambian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Zambia's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Zambia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Zambia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Zambian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Zambia's Economic Outlook:

How will Zambian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Zambia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Zambian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Zambia Economic Outlook Contents

The Zambia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Zambia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Zambian government views. Underpinning our Zambia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Zambia

  • Economic Activity in Zambia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Zambia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Zambia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Zambia; Zambian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Zambia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Zambia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Zambian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Zambia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Zambia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Zambian government economic policy

Zambia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Zambia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Zambia.

Zambia Business Environment Contents

  • Zambia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Zambia, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Zambia
    Competitiveness of Zambia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Zambia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Zambia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Zambia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Zambia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Zambia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Zambian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Zambia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Zambia's Key Industry Sectors - Zambian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Zambia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Zambia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Zambia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Zambia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Zambia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Zambia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Zambia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The most useful section of BMI's report for my business is the Economic Outlook, which contains specific details of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to my business from within the country. This helps me, when planning for the future to reach the widest market and also gives me the edge in order to overtake my competitors. "
Chairman, Bavarian Auto Trading. BMW Egypt, Egypt.

BMI's Executive Summary for Zambia

[TOP]

Investment The Key Issue

The effects of massive foreign investment have spread throughout Zambia. On the economic front, investment should continue to spur economic growth, especially in the construction and mining sectors. Furthermore, massive capital inflows are likely to push up the exchange rate but also give rise to a growing dependence on China, especially for trade. On the political front there is a more mixed outlook. The two governments have solidified a beneficial partnership, but at the same time the perception of Chinese exploitation of Zambian labour has fostered an anti-China backlash among the general populace, which shows little sign of receding. This is despite China's efforts to aid the development of the country via infrastructure investment. This investment should help Zambia's business environment, with major pushes from both China and Zambia's governments to overhaul the faltering power and transportation networks, although work in other areas is also needed.

In February 2007, China and Zambia jointly announced the creation of a special economic zone in the Zambian copper belt, marking a commitment by the two countries to work closely for many years to come. However, a popular growing perception that China is exploiting Zambia – by taking its resources while stifling the value-added sector, paying low wages, and ignoring safety laws – has given rise to a backlash against the Asian investor, which shows no signs of abating in the years to come. Nonetheless, we see little scope for major policy change, as national elections are not scheduled until 2011, and the current government believes Chinese investment is in the best long-term interest of the country.

We have a positive macroeconomic outlook for Zambia on the back of improved macroeconomic policy, high commodity prices and foreign investment, which should keep real GDP growth strong, boost government revenue and expenditure, and help strengthen the currency. Zambia has worked to diversify its economy away from copper with some success, such that the country should be able to achieve growth above 4%, even amid a sustained fall in copper prices, which is not our core scenario. We are more cautious about the equity market's growth prospects, despite its strong performance in 2007, because the index remains small and potentially overbought.

The business environment is set to see many changes in the next year. The government seems prepared to raise mining taxes in April as promised, despite the objections of mining firms. The Citizens' Empowerment Act could see changes in the country's regulatory framework in the years ahead, with a shift towards preferential treatment of domestic firms and citizens. Finally, over the long run, major investments in the country's physical infrastructure continue to move ahead, potentially easing the transportation and power problems over the next several years.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.