Zimbabwe Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Zimbabwean market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Zimbabwe and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Zimbabwe's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report | Zimbabwe's Political Outlook | Zimbabwe's Economic Outlook | Zimbabwe's Business Environment | Key Zimbabwe Industry Sectors | Zimbabwe BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Zimbabwe's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Zimbabwe, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Zimbabwe's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Zimbabwe's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Zimbabwe's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Zimbabwe, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Zimbabwe's Political Outlook, Zimbabwe's Economic Outlook, Zimbabwe's Business Environment and Zimbabwe's Key Industry Sectors.

Zimbabwe's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Zimbabwe over the next 5 years?

BMI's Zimbabwe Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Zimbabwe Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Zimbabwean Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Zimbabwe.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Zimbabwe
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Zimbabwe's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Zimbabwe
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Zimbabwean government, assessing threats to the continuity of Zimbabwean economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Zimbabwean Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Zimbabwe's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Zimbabwe's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Zimbabwe, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Zimbabwean government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Zimbabwe's Economic Outlook:

How will Zimbabwean economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Zimbabwe through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Zimbabwean growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Zimbabwe Economic Outlook Contents

The Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Zimbabwe, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Zimbabwean government views. Underpinning our Zimbabwe forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Zimbabwe

  • Economic Activity in Zimbabwe
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Zimbabwe
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Zimbabwe
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Zimbabwe; Zimbabwean currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Zimbabwe
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Zimbabwe
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Zimbabwean External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Zimbabwe and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Zimbabwe database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Zimbabwean government economic policy

Zimbabwe's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Zimbabwe's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe Business Environment Contents

  • Zimbabwe's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Zimbabwe, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Zimbabwe
    Competitiveness of Zimbabwe's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Zimbabwe's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Zimbabwe
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Zimbabwe
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Zimbabwe's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Zimbabwe will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Zimbabwean market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Zimbabwe's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Zimbabwe's Key Industry Sectors - Zimbabwean Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Zimbabwe
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Zimbabwe; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Zimbabwe
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Zimbabwe's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Zimbabwe's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Zimbabwe.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The risk ratings provide useful insights into how Zimbabwe compares to other countries in the continent. This is not only critical for business leaders but also for policy makers. The report offers assessments of the political, economic, social and legal framework within the country which is very important in making investment decisions. Business leaders are given an opportunity to capitalise on the strengths and opportunities, and mitigate the effect of threats within the Zimbabwe business environment. "
Zimbabwe Platinum Mines Ltd, Zimbabwe.

BMI's Executive Summary for Zimbabwe

[TOP]

Elections Unlikely To Produce Political Or Economic Change

Presidential, parliamentary and local elections are set for March 2008, although the date could slip as a lack of funds has delayed preparations. Both the ruling ZANU-PF party and the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are divided, and neither are viewed with any enthusiasm by the electorate. The MDC's already damaged credibility has been eroded further by its decision to vote with the government in parliament to pass a series of constitutional amendments proposed by the regime in exchange for very little practical advantage. That move has provided valuable relief to President Robert Mugabe, who has been under considerable pressure from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to make political concessions.

Mugabe will almost certainly win the election, possibly with a reduced but still decisive majority. We expect SADC to declare the vote free and fair on the day, but the wider international community will likely see through the charade and maintain Zimbabwe's isolation. Despite being returned, Mugabe's position is expected to remain highly insecure with powerful factions within the regime continuing to plot against him. He is known to wish to step down (the constitutional amendments were designed to give him control over a succession) after a last hurrah, but ZANU-PF cannot agree on a replacement.

The regime will continue to plunder the economy for patronage. We expect another year of negative real GDP growth in 2008, as well as continued hyperinflation, and a hand-to-mouth foreign exchange position. Domestic investment will remain non-existent, shortages of basic goods will persist, and public services will further deteriorate to levels that make normal life and commerce almost impossible. In order to sustain itself, the regime will likely attempt more 'asset grabs' with foreign-owned businesses a probable target. Those international companies still operating in Zimbabwe have already written off their investments, but should these be pushed to cede majority control, as the government plans, they will simply pack up and leave.

At least 80% of economic activity is now informal. The parallel exchange rate has reached ZWD1,200,000/US$, forty times the illusory official rate. The central bank has lost control of its remit, is totally discredited, and is little more than lender of last resort to state deficit spending. Timing the nadir is impossible, but we still believe that a new Zimbabwe will attract enthusiastic donor support and significant interest from private investors. Just how long it will take to reconstruct the economy can only be known after a damage assessment is possible, but at least a decade seems the minimum time frame.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.