Cote d`Ivoire
In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Despite a moderate downward revision to our 2015 real GDP growth forecast for Côte d'Ivoire, at 8.6% it is still one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Private consumption and gross fixed capital investment will be the major drivers of this expansion.

  • Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Allassane Outtara's victory in October elections, and with it policy continuity. However, although we do not expect a return to civil war in 2015,there are a number of challenges to security, including striking soldiers and high-profile trials.

  • Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in 2015 as it returns to trend level. The deficit narrowed in 2014 thanks to a surge in cocoa production, but we believe that the effect of this have petered out. Imports will rise thanks to the development of new industries.

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Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

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BMI View : Côte d'Ivoire's increasingly investor-friendly business environment, resurgent economy and stable geopolitical situation make the country one of the most attractive investment propositions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at present. Nevertheless, concerns of the partiality of the judiciary, a largely unskilled labour pool and crumbling transport infrastructure mean that investors in the country must negotiate a number of obstacles in order to realise gains from Côte d'Ivoire's growing economic potential. As a result Côte d'Ivoire receives a score of 36.1 out of 100 in the BMI Operational Risk Index,...

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Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

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BMI View : Foreign business travellers, expatriates and tourists face pronounced Crime and Security Risks in Côte d'Ivoire. The most pressing threat to foreign businesses stems from the country's high crime rate, while the main terrorist risks emerge from groups which maintain allegiance to former President Laurent Gbagbo, though these groups are poorly organised and equipped. The country faces reduced risks from interstate conflict due to peaceful relations with neighbouring states. Overall, Côte d'Ivoire is a regional underperformer in the BMI Crime and Security Risk Index, with a score of 30.4 out of 100 and a rank of 32 out of 44 SSA states. 

Crime is widespread throughout Côte d'Ivoire. However, the commercial capital, Abidjan, is the most acutely affected, with car...

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Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

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BMI View: Côte d'Ivoire's labour market cannot compete with its regional peers due to a general lack of education in the workforce, combined with poor public health and a residual hangover from a civil war that plagued the country from 2002-2004. Although Côte d'Ivoire has a favourable demographic situation, with 59% of the population under the age of 24, the country has proven incapable of turning its population into skilled workers, and we see no sign of this situation improving over the medium term. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI awards Côte d'Ivoire with a score of 40.3 out of 100, which places the country in joint 22nd place with Madagascar.

Businesses in Côte d'Ivoire will benefit from a large availability of labour due to its large working-age population, migrant workforce and urbanisation rates. There is an abundance of low and semi-skilled labour that will benefit...

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Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

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BMI View : Côte d'Ivoire's supply chains suffer from insufficient regional linkages and stifling bureaucracy, which prevent the country from becoming a West African trade hub and damage its attractiveness for investors. Consequently, BMI awards Côte d'Ivoire with a score of 38.1 out of 100 for overall Logistics Risk, placing the country 16th out of 44 in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), next to Nigeria and Sudan.

The country's transport network has yet to recover from the neglect it suffered as a result of the civil unrest that plagued Côte d'Ivoire between 2002 and 2010, when government spending was focused on the military. As such, transport infrastructure in the country is crumbling...

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Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

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BMI View : Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

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Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

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According to Renault, total industry auto sales in Cote d'Ivoire rose 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2014, to 667 units. This brought total vehicle sales for 9M14 to 5,539 units, an increase of 3.9% y-o-y.

The recent slowdown in sales has prompted us to downgrade our 2014 forecast from 12.0% to 5.0%, which will see sales reach 6,746 units at the end of the year.

Côte d'Ivoire has suffered from chronic underinvestment following years of conflict and civil war. Its poor transport infrastructure, deteriorating road networks and high number of military checkpoints have had a negative impact on foreign investment.

However, the end of the post-electoral conflict provided an opportunity to push democratisation forward and in December 2011 parliamentary elections passed relatively smoothly.

Prior to the conflict of 2002, Côte d'Ivoire was a leading...

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Food & Drink

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

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Côte d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our view that the country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the local market will leave tremendous room for growth. We still expect to see average annual real GDP growth of close to 9% between 2014 and 2018. By our forecasts, this places Côte d'Ivoire as the fourth fastest-growing Sub-Saharan African country to 2018, behind Sierra Leone, Mozambique and South Sudan. As a result, we believe that incomes will rise by almost 50%, driving a nominal increase in per capita food consumption of 46.3% between 2013 and 2018.

Key Forecasts

  • 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency terms): +10.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +10...

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Infrastructure

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's construction sector is expected to sustain high growth levels estimated since 2012 over the next five years. Between 2015 and 2019 we anticipate growth to average 9.0%, driven by major investments to develop the country's transport and power infrastructure. Government revenues are expected to remain conducive to investment, while private investment has been increasing. The biggest threat remains an uptick in political risk, however, a significant deterioration in the political climate is not our core view.

A number of mega projects, in line with the country's USD22.8bn National Development Plan, are seeing significant investment taking place in the country's infrastructure sector. Funded by public and private sources, the country is experiencing a boom in investment in the transport and power sectors, while growing natural...

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Mining

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

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BMI View: West Africa's iron ore production growth will face difficult times ahead, as the collapse in global iron ore prices and outbreak of the Ebola virus will slash mining companies' revenue, limit capital expenditure options, force the evacuation of workers and disrupt supply chains.

Weak global prices and the Ebola virus outbreak will dent West Africa's growth outlook as mining companies suffer reduced revenue, difficulties in obtaining finance and lacking infrastructure.

Growth To Be Gradual
Select Countries - Iron Ore Production (Mn tonnes)
...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: The launch of Côte d'Ivoire's universal healthcare scheme will improve much of the population's access to medicines and drive the demand for pharmaceuticals in the country. Its geographical proximity to Ebola-stricken Liberia and Guinea has seen the West African country be the beneficiary of aid donations which should assist in the strengthening of Côte d'Ivoire's health services. We highlight low affordability levels among the population as a barrier to healthcare access.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: XOF250.49bn (USD512mn) in 2014 to XOF269.96bn (USD514mn) in 2015; +7.8% in local currency terms and +0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with our previous...

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Telecommunications

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our Q115 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of seven countries: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. As mobile subscriptions growth slows down in these markets, operators will increasingly shift their resources towards advanced data services to sustain revenue growth. Their efforts will be complemented by the proliferation of low-cost smartphones and tablets as well as cheaper and more reliable access to international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Key Data

  • The average mobile market growth for the seven countries in our coverage in Q314 was 4...

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