Country Risk

Expert risk-analysis of the economic, political and operational risk environment for 195 key country markets to direct your company’s global growth strategy.

Select a region to view:

Africa Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia Europe Europe Europe Europe Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Middle East Latin America Latin America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America North America

Asia countries covered:

Caribbean countries covered:

Latin America countries covered:

Middle East countries covered:

North American countries covered:

Our Country Risk Service provides you with commercially-focused analysis to help you:

  • Make expertly-informed investment decisions
  • Expand your operations in developed, emerging and frontier markets
  • Enhance your global growth strategy

Our Products and Services:

Business Monitor Online Service:

  • Our BMO Country Risk Service provides you with country research, macroeconomic forecasts, political and business environment risk analysis and operational stability on a country, regional or global basis.
  • The service gives you access to daily news analysis, country assessments and 5- and 10-year forecasts to keep you constantly updated on the latest developments that could affect your operations.

Reports:

We produce more than 100 quarterly updated country reports identifying the risks and opportunities in a market over a 5-year period. Key areas of focus include:

  • Economic Activity
  • Monetary Policy
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Balance of Payments
  • Debt Dynamics
  • FX Rate
  • Political Risk
  • Business Environment Risk

Key Benefits:

  • Market Assessment: Forecast your company’s growth and profitability for 2013 and beyond
  • Market Development: Benchmark long-term growth assumptions for any market of interest
  • Business Planning: Fine tune your business strategy using our forecasts
  • Risk Mitigation: Measure economic, political and business environment risks facing your company
  • Hedge: Manage currency volatility and input price risks
  • Business Opportunities: Target opportunities in key industries
  • International Exposure: Evaluate your company’s exposure in your export markets

Key features of the Country Risk Service:

Economic Risk Analysis:

  • Our unbiased 5 and 10yr economic forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are essential for your medium and long-term investment decision-making.
  • Our Risk-Ratings system rates each country for economic risk and provides a powerful country comparative investment tool.
In-depth Analysis on:
  • Economic Activity
  • Balance of Payments
  • Monetary Policy
  • Exchange Rate Policy
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • External Debt
  • Global Assumptions

Political Risk Analysis:

  • We examine structural risks to a country’s political system and outline scenarios for how the country could evolve over the medium- to long-term to guide your future activities.
  • Our Political Risk Ratings analyse and quantify short and long-term risks to political stability, examining states in comparison to their regional and global peer group. compared with regional and global averages, which could affect your strategy.

Business Environment:

  • Business Environment Risk Ratings quantify and compare a country’s operating risks against its regional or global peers
In-depth Analysis on:
  • Domestic Environment
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Foreign Trade

Our Global Track Record

View: In late 2010, we outlined a financial markets strategy favouring developed over emerging market equities, particularly highlighting US stocks as outperformers.

Result: The ratio of the MSCI World equity index (consisting of developed world markets) to the MSCI Emerging Market equity index has risen by more than 48% since we initiated the view in Q410 (as of July 1, 2013)

Quote: "EM equities promised much going into 2010, and for the most part, they delivered, with stellar returns amplified in many cases by local currency appreciation. They can go higher, but one view taking shape is that developed state equity markets will outperform their emerging market counterparts in 2011. Though we continue to see gains for many emerging market bourses over the course of the year, the upside in developed markets could be greater on both a technical and a fundamental basis." (21 December 2010)

View: We called for a pullback by oil from Q112 highs in April, in line with a bearish shift in our expectations for the commodity complex as a whole. We highlighted oil as particularly vulnerable to weakness in Q212. Non commercial net speculative positions were turning lower from elevated levels, which suggested that bullish investors banking on a geo-political driven supply scrunch in the Middle East were losing patience.

Result: From a level of US$121, Brent Crude swiftly pulled back to US$116/bbl. Weakness persisted for the remainder of Q212, with Brent pushing just below US$90/bbl in late June. This low represented a price decline of 27% from when we turned bearish.

Quote: September 2011: "Residential construction, which has lost almost 20% of its share over the last decade, is bottoming out. Still weak housing starts data shows that the trend has not yet reversed, but we do not expect it to worsen. Overall we expect the subsector to average out at -1.6% for 2011, and return to growth at 1.2% in 2012, as residential construction pulls into positive growth.”

Quote: January 2012: “One market that looks vulnerable to additional weakness is oil. Brent Crude is flirting with support in the US$121/bbl area and a weekly close below this level would suggest that a move down towards US$116/bbl is likely. With geopolitical tension around the Straits of Hormuz easing slightly in recent weeks, investors have begun to pare back bullish bets on oil. Net speculative long positions for Brent have started to unwind, having surged in Q112.” ('Subdued Q212 On The Cards')

View: We turned outright bearish Brent Crude in May 2011 and targeted significant downside, from around US$121/bbl to US$110/bbl.

Result: Brent crude collapsed over 12% in subsequent trading to trade around US$105/bbl in a matter of hours.

Quote: "We see little scope for a sharp move higher in Brent at the present juncture and believe that fundamental and technical risks to the oil price are now skewed firmly to the downside. As the chart illustrates, oil appears to be running out of momentum, and we believe a medium-term reversal may be afoot." ('Short-Term Picture Deteriorating', May 5 2011)

View: On March 25 2009, we stressed that risk appetite was back on, indicating that a major bullish reversal was likely across global assets. In particular, we highlighted US financials stocks as having major upside potential. With the S&P Financials index at 129.00, we set a medium-term target of 280.00.

Result: Risk appetite came back in force through the second and third quarters of 2009, with benchmark equity indices rising by 50-150% globally. The S&P Financials Index was one of the best performing developed world indices, at one point up by 62.7% in Q309. It subsequently rose further to average 200.00 In Q1 2010.

Quote: "Bank stocks are looking good. Having promoted the bearish view of the S&P financials index back in Q107 around the 440.00-450.00 area, we are now turning bullish at the 129.00 mark. We believe the index can jump to 280.00 over the coming months. In this regard, shares like Citigroup and RBS have major upside potential from very low levels." ('Risk Appetite Is Back... For Now', March 25 2009)

View: In July 2008, in anticipation of a sharp correction in global commodity prices, we anticipated the end of the aggressive run up in inflationary pressures witnessed in emerging markets. Furthermore, amid declining house prices, rising unemployment, weak credit growth and low consumer confidence, we flagged the possibility for a period of deflation in the developed world.

Result: After rising to a record high on July 3, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials, commodity prices dropped by 36%, the biggest collapse since the index was introduced in 1956. Inflation in developed states hit its lowest level in at least 30 years in 2009, with several countries experiencing year-on-year deflation.

Quote: "In this respect, we are becoming more convinced of our big picture view, that when commodity prices turn, they will sell-off hard and fast... Simultaneously, inflation rates in the EM world will drop dramatically, heralding a period of disinflation... Looking at developed markets, we could take the argument one step further and suggest that 2009 heralds a period of deflation." ('Inflation To Deflation?', 10 Jul 2008)

View: In July 2008 we thought that oil prices were significantly overextended to the upside. We initially targeted a move from US$140/bbl area to US$80-90/bbl. Then in August, we set a target of US$50/bbl.

Result: This has been one of BMI's best commodities calls as we picked the top of the market before it collapsed. Oil eventually even traded well below US$50.00/bbl.

Quote: "The likely cooling of economic activity in EM, the taming of inflation and the bottoming of the dollar could well see oil prices turn sharply at some point over the coming quarters." ('Oil: Bubble Forming', July 2 2008)