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The Belarus Defence & Security Report -
- Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Belarus.
- Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Belarusian Defence and Security industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Belarusian defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Belarus.
The Belarus Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Belarus through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Belarus.
Business Monitor International's Belarusian Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Belarusian defence & security industry. |
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Key Benefits of Report -
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Belarusian defence and security market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Belarusian Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Belarusian Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
CoverageSWOT AnalysisSnapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’. Political Risk Assessment Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector. Security Risk AnalysisBMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign. Defence Industry Assessment Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments. BMI 5-Year ForecastsHistoric data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)
BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company Profiles Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects. |
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BMI's Executive Summary
[TOP]
Belarus faced something of a defence and security crossroads in 2007. An isolated and near pariahlike
state in the international community, it had relied on a close strategic alliance with Russia to help
shore up its economy and its defence and security position. But the dominant story of the year was
the opening of a long and damaging conflict with Moscow over gas prices and transit fees. Shocked
with the doubling of gas prices charged by Gazprom in January 2007, the government of Alexander
Lukashenko reacted erratically, oscillating between defiance and attempts to renegotiate the terms of
a previously privileged relationship with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. In a series of statements
throughout the year Lukashenko castigated the Russians for their greed, suggested his country would
develop its own nuclear reactors to gain greater energy independence, and yet at the same time at
various points acknowledged that Russia remained his main foreign policy priority and that the 'union
pact' – a plan to merge the two states pulled apart by the collapse of the Soviet Union – remained his
long-term goal. The counterpart of this policy zigzag was oscillation in relations with the European
Union. Here, Minsk wavered between rejecting Brussels' demands for democracy and human rights
on the one hand, and seeking some kind of accommodation on the other. In October 2007 the Minsk
authorities even allowed a small demonstration by opposition parties calling for closer links with the
European Union.
Despite Belarus' poor diplomatic and military relationship with the US and the EU, its external and
internal security remained reasonably stable during 2007. The opposition to the government remained
relatively weak, cowed by the weight of the security services, and with only tenuous unity among the
different political groupings. Strong economic growth has to some extent softened anti-government
protests over the lack of democracy. Looking towards the future, however, cooling relations with
Moscow may have a negative impact on the economy, and contribute to a more difficult political
scenario for the regime.
In 2007 Belarus' arms trade continued to come under greater scrutiny from the international
community. Reports of arms sales to rogue or strongly anti-US states (among them Venezuela and
Iran) were being watched closely in Western capitals. Suspicions had emerged after Belarus
purchased the technology without the necessary support systems or the need. The international
community still regards Belarus as a prominent conduit for illegal arms trading.
The Belarusian defence industry continues to be dominated by state-run defence enterprises such as
Beltechexport and Belvneshpromservis. The latter is a significant player in Belarusian arms exports
and modernisation.
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Contents [TOP]
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Security
Defence Industry
Military Expenditure
Arms Trade
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Belarus Security SWOT
Belarus Defence Industry SWOT
Belarus Political Overview SWOT
Chapter 3 - Political Overview
Internal Political Outlook
External Political Outlook
Chapter 4 - Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Europe Regional Security Risk Rating Q306
Belarus Terrorism Risk
Belarus Physical Safety Risk
Belarus Conflict Risk
Chapter 5 - Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Territorial Disputes
Relations With The West
Relations With Central Asia And Russia
Chapter 6 - Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2005
Current Strength
Historical Strength
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Chapter 7 - Market Overview
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Key Players: Belarus Defence Sector
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Chapter 8 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Belarus Troop Numbers, Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Belarus Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter 9 - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
BMI View
VAT Woes
Table: Belarus – Macroeconomic Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Chapter 10 - Company Profiles
Beltechexport
558 Aviation Repair Plant
Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT)
Minotor Service Company
Chapter 11 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
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Competitive Landscape for European Defence & Security: Sample of Companies Ranked
[TOP]
Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on
previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established.
Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.
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[TOP]
BMI's European Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive
network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information
sources include:
* Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
* EBRD
* Eurostat
* Institute of War and Peace Reporting, London
* International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), London
* Ministry of Defence, Bulgaria
* Ministry of Defence, Cyprus
* Ministry of Defence, Czech Republic
* Ministry of Defence, France
* Ministry of Defence, Germany
* Ministry of Defence, Greece
* Ministry of Defence, Hungary
* Ministry of Defence, Poland
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* Ministry of Defence, Romania
* Ministry of Defence, Russia
* Ministry of Defence, UK
* Ministry of Defence, Ukraine
* National Institute of Statistics, Romania
* NATO
* Office of National Statistics, UK
* Russian-European Centre for Economic Policy
* UN Department of Political Affairs, New York
* United Nations (UN), New York
* US Department of Defence, Washington
* US State Department, Washington
* World Bank
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Read about our other Defence & Security Reports
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 Business Monitor International A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK | BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world. Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts BMI has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets. Industry Intelligence and Market Research BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism. Company Research BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets. |
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