Colombia Defencesecurity Industry Forecast

The Colombia Defence & Security Report

    • Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Colombia.
    • Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Colombian Defence and Security  industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Colombian defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Colombia.

The Colombia Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Colombia through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Colombia.

Business Monitor International's Colombian Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Colombian Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Colombian Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

 

Coverage

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and
foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

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During Q407, the administration of President Álvaro Uribe enjoyed some success in its struggles with the Fuerrzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and drug smugglers. In late October, FARC commander Martin Cabellero, along with 18 other rebels, died in a battle with the Colombian army. The regional and municipal elections went ahead in October largely without incident. Voters chose 32 governors, 418 provincial legislators, 1,098 mayors and 12,030 council members across all but two of Colombia's 1,098 municipalities.

These developments followed the arrest in Q307 of several leading drug smugglers, including Diego Montoya, who had been widely recognised as being the leader of the Norte del Valle drug cartel. In early November, the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) reported that there were clear signs of disruption in the markets for cocaine (and for methamphetamines). The DEA has found that, in the first nine months of 2007, the street price per gram of cocaine has risen by 44%, while the level of purity has fallen by 15%. Despite the arrests, there are several grounds for concern. For instance, there is some evidence of the emergence of new armed groups in the wake of the disbanding of the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). The International Crisis Group, for one, believes that the government's plans for the reintegration of paramilitaries into normal society is 'deeply flawed'. Meanwhile, much of the action has shifted across the porous border into neighbouring Venezuela, where crime is soaring. Indeed, some sources suggest that the murder rate in Venezuela is now significantly in excess of that of Colombia, which has long held a justified reputation for being a violent country.

In the meantime, relations between Colombia and Venezuela have deteriorated further. As noted in Q307, the Colombian government had been concerned about the purchases of large quantities of firearms (including 100,000 AK assault rifles from Russia) by the Venezuelan armed forces: the Colombian government is concerned that these weapons will find their way to paramilitary groups or drug smugglers in Colombia. Towards the end of November, Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez 'froze' relations with the government of Colombia. This was in response to President Uribe's decision to end the role of President Chávez as intermediary in negotiations with FARC. The implication is that an immediate release of the 44 'exchangeable' hostages held by FARC (including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt) appears very unlikely.

In mid-October, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report, Colombia: Moving Forward with the ELN, which suggested that the peace negotiations between the government and the Ejercito de Liberación Nacional face failure unless substantial bottlenecks are overcome. The ICG suggested that a cease-fire is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for peace. 'The ELN should release kidnap victims, de-mine some areas, make more information available and propose a model for ceasefire implementation and verification. The Uribe administration should be more flexible on a complete cessation of hostilities and the concentration and identification of ELN troops in a ceasefire. Norway, Spain and Switzerland should consider offering expertise on ceasefires and related matters.'

Colombia's indigenous arms industry is small, but is looking to expand sales throughout South America and, indeed, further afield.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Colombia Political SWOT

Colombia Security SWOT

Colombia Defence Industry SWOT

Colombia Economic SWOT

Colombia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Overview

Domestic Political Outlook

Scandal Threatens Reform Outlook

Implications: Peace Plan Under Threat?

FARC Talks In The Balance?

External Political Outlook

Signed, Sealed But Not Delivered

CAN Vs Mercosur?

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s Security Ratings

Risk Ratings

Table: Regional Risk Ratings

Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Regional Security: Latin America

US-Latin America Relations

Narcotics and Security

Columbia Security Risk Rating

Colombia Conflict Risk

Colombia Terrorism Risk

Colombia Physical Safety Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Overview

Internal Security Situation

Civil War?

Paramilitary Demobilisation

FARC And Counter-Insurgency

Negotiations with the ELN

External Security Situation

Colombia-US Relations

Colombia-Venezuela Relations

Colombia-Ecuador Relations

Colombia-Nicaragua Relations

Colombia’s Multilateral Relations – European Union

Colombia’s Multilateral Relations – Organisation of American States

Table: Colombia Changes In Security Situation

Chapter 5 - Military Structure & Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006

International Deployment

Table: Foreign Deployments

Market Overview

Arms Trade Overview

Imports

Industry Trends & Developments

Procurement Trends & Developments

Table: Comparison Of Military Equipment And Proposed Procurements

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Colombia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Colombia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Moderation To Sustainable Growth

Table: Colombia – Economic Activity

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players – Colombia Defence Sector

Chapter 9 - Company Profiles

Industria Militar (Indumil)

Chapter 10 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 11 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index Methodology

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

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BMI's Latin America Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

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Company Research
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