Mexico Defencesecurity Industry Forecast

The Mexico Defence & Security Report

    • Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Mexico.
    • Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Mexican Defence and Security  industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Mexican defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Mexico.

The Mexico Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Mexico through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Mexico.

Business Monitor International's Mexican Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Mexican defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Mexican defence and security market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Mexican Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Mexican Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

 

Coverage

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and
foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

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The start of President Felipe Calderón's six-year presidency in December 2006 was inauspicious: with a narrow and contested victory in the elections six months earlier the new leader faced the bitter opposition of Mexico's left wing parties and lacked a majority in Congress. However, one year on, at the tail end of 2007, Calderón had surprised even his strongest critics by moving forward with tax and other reforms. One of his most popular decisions was taken right at the beginning, when the President brought the armed forces into the struggle against Mexico's powerful and murderous drug cartels. Early results on this front helped his standing in the opinion polls: some leading drug bosses were arrested or extradited to the US, and by late 2007 the security services were making record drug seizures. Cocaine prices in the US rose to a five-year high, reflecting a tightening of supply caused by the crackdown in Mexico. While the situation was clearly encouraging, and persuaded Washington to throw its support behind a US$8.4bn three-year Mexican drugs control programme, BMI warns that the drugs business remains resilient, and that most politicians who have proclaimed victory in the 'war against drugs' have been proven wrong.

A source of concern was the re-emergence of a dormant and little-known guerrilla group in central Mexico, the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), which in mid-2007 launched a series of highly damaging bomb attacks on natural gas pipelines, causing significant economic losses. The EPR appeared motivated by the presumed kidnapping of two of its members, and apart from this specific issue was not thought to be seeking to mount a major challenge to the new government. However, the way it had managed to keep 'under the radar' of the intelligence services, and the strength of the blow it delivered to the pipeline infrastructure, highlighted a significant security weakness.

Mexico maintains a small defence industry focusing mainly on the production of small arms and ammunition. Efforts to achieve a degree of self-sufficiency through co-operation with foreign firms floundered as a result of the economic difficulties of the early 1980s. Since then, Mexico has relied mainly on foreign, and in particular US, arms manufacturers for its large-scale weapons systems requirements.

Given that the US security guarantees against external threats, Mexico has never needed a very large army. The armed forces are, however, in need of modernisation – Mexico's army has no battle tanks in its inventory. Mexican armed forces continue to monitor rebel enclaves and strongholds, mounting occasional 'search and destroy' missions and making arrests; generally, however, there is a stalemate. Regardless of the internal protests Mexico can rely on US support, political and military, to assist with security issues: good news given the condition of Mexico's defence industry.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Mexico Political SWOT

Mexico Security SWOT

Mexico Defence Industry SWOT

Mexico Economic SWOT

Mexico Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Overview

Domestic Political Outlook

Calderón Victorious – AMLO Defiant

Challenges Ahead

Foreign Policy

Ready For Reform

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s Security Ratings

Risk Ratings

Table: Regional Risk Ratings

Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Regional Security: Latin America

US-Latin America Relations

Regional Arms Race

Narcotics And Security

Mexico Security Risk Rating

Mexico Conflict Risk

Mexico Terrorism Risk

Mexico Physical Safety Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Overview

Internal Security Situation

Gangs and the Drug Trade

External Security Situation

Mexico-US Relations

Al-Qaeda

Chapter 5 - Military Structure & Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006

US-Mexican Military Co-Operation

Market Overview

Arms Trade Overview

Imports

Industry Trends And Developments

Procurement Trends And Developments

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Mexico Defence & Security Industry – Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Mexico Defence & Security Industry – Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks To Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Auto Sector Drives Up Forecasts

Table: Economic Activity Indicators

Chapter 8 - Company Profiles

Honeywell Aerospace

Productos Mendoza SA

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index Methodology

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

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BMI's Latin America Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Defence & Security Reports

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Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.