BMI's Executive Summary

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The electoral victory of the Civic Platform (PO) led coalition, in the snap poll that was held on October 21 2007, will change the overall direction of Polish government policy in favour of greater engagement with the EU, including the adoption of the euro in 2012 or 2013. Its task is being made easier by the extension of the Schengen Treaty (i.e. for unrestricted cross-border travel within the EU) to include most of the EU's newer members (although not yet Bulgaria or Romania) in December 2007. In addition, the PO is committed to financial discipline, and has said that it will not increase real government spending by more than 3% annually. The implication of this is that it may be difficult for Poland's armed forces to achieve all that is planned for them over the forecast period. The 2007 budget involved a 10.5% increase in defence spending to PLN21,579mn. Defence spending in 2007 amounted, according to the Ministry of National Defence, to about 1.95% of 2006 GDP – and is therefore close to what is regarded as a suitable floor for defence spending by a NATO country (i.e. 2% of GDP). Nevertheless, the Ministry made it clear that it is advocating even greater expenditure. In the short term, the tasks faced by the Polish armed forces remain many and varied. Over 3,000 troops have been posted abroad, and are serving in missions led by NATO, the EU, the UN or the US-led coalition in the Middle East. The armed forces are also upgrading their capabilities for counter-terrorism, ground surveillance and operation of defence early warning systems.

More fundamentally, the Polish armed forces are in the midst of an enormous transition. They are becoming smaller (in terms of manpower, if not operational capability and firepower), more professional (and less reliant on conscripts) and more like other NATO forces in terms of organisation and equipment. This implies substantial expenditure on procurement, which increased from 20.0% of total defence spending in 2006 to 23.3% of (significantly larger, as noted above) spending in 2007. Procurement spending in 2007 includes PLN1,277mn on the latest stage of the F-16 aircraft purchase programme. Even if budgetary and economic constraints prevent the defence budget from rising as rapidly as the Ministry of National Defence would like, Poland will remain a significant buyer of arms and materiel. This is particularly good news for US suppliers, from whom Poland is sourcing much of its technologyintensive equipment. However, there will also be substantial opportunities for Poland's indigenous arms suppliers.

Like the armed forces, Poland's defence/ aerospace industries have had to undergo an enormous transformation. They have shed labour and refocused their product offering to take account of the disappearance of former markets in the Soviet Union. In some cases, companies have been privatised and have become subsidiaries of US multi-nationals such as United Technologies. Recent contracts show that Poland's defence-aerospace industries are globally competitive in particular niches such as aircraft components and radio systems. Nevertheless, export sales remain fairly small: company managements will have to work to change this through the forecast period – and especially if budgetary issues limit the growth of the Polish armed forces' procurement budget.

Poland's geographical position in Europe and its entry into the EU make it a prime location for the trafficking of illegal immigrants, arms, and narcotics. The problems are not as pronounced as those in countries further south, such as the Czech Republic and the former Yugoslavia. Nonetheless, a significant amount of funds will have to be invested in the Border Guards paramilitary unit, under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, in order to secure a lengthy border with the Ukraine and prevent smuggling of illicit goods and people to the enlarged EU. In its efforts, Poland is likely to receive substantial assistance, both financial and technical, from its new EU partners.

The other non-traditional security issue is terrorism. Poland's participation in various military missions in Afghanistan and Iraq make it a target for Islamic militants. Over the last two years, the Ministry of National Defence has increased spending on the Military Police, who would be involved with countering terrorist threats within Poland.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Poland Political SWOT

Poland Security SWOT

Poland Defence Industry SWOT

Poland Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Outlook

Domestic Political Outlook

A New Coalition, But Political Wrangling Ahead

Economic Growth To Continue

Losing A Battle, Winning The War?

Foreign Policy

Two Very Different Neighbours

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s Security Ratings

Table: Poland Regional Security Risk Ratings

Table: Poland Regional Terrorism Risk Ratings

Regional Security: Europe

Overview

Internal Terrorism

International Terrorism

Criminal Activities

Poland Security Risk Ratings

Poland Conflict Risk

Poland Terrorism Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Risk Overview

Internal Security Situation

Organised Crime

External Security Situation

International Terrorism

Chapter 5 - Military Structure & Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006

Defence Posture

Defence Reform

Defence Budget

International Deployments

Table: Foreign Deployments

Co-ordination And Joint Operations

Table: Selected Training Events/Exercises In Which Poland Took Part In 2004:

Chapter 6 - Market Structure

Table: Poland Defence Key Players

Arms Trade Overview

Imports

Exports

Industry Trends And Developments

Procurement Trends and Developments

Chapter 7 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Army Enlargements

Table: Army Enlargements

Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry

Chapter 8 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Growth Peaking In H106

Risks To Growth

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 9 - Company Profiles

PHZ Bumar

HSW

WSK PZL Mielec

WSK PZL Rzeszow

Chapter 10 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 11 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index

Competitive Landscape for European Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

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BMI's European Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: