Russia Defencesecurity Industry Forecast

The Russia Defence & Security Report

    • Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Russia.
    • Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Russian Defence and Security  industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Russian defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Russia.

The Russia Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Russia through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Russia.

Business Monitor International's Russian Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Russian defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian defence and security market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Russian Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Russian Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

 

Coverage

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and
foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

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Russia's defence exports rose considerably in 2007 due to a number of high-profile orders secured with Venezuela, Iran, India, Algeria and most recently Indonesia. In the fourth quarter of 2007, Indonesia secured a US$1bn loan from a Russian bank to purchase six Sukhoi fighter aircraft. It is probable that Indonesia will have to request additional finance from overseas banks given that the defence budget is small compared to its relatively ambitious procurement programme. The budget remains under 1% of GDP, despite the 13% increase from the 2006 to the 2007 general budget. However, despite the boom in overseas demand for Russian defence products, there are obstacles to the Russian industry benefiting from the deals. It is estimated that Russia may require up to 100 patents to fully protect its defence exports, but there are currently only 15 defence systems that are under patent protection. Consequently, Russia's defence industry may be in danger of losing between US$5bn-$6bn per annum due to a failure to patent military hardware that is regularly exported.

Other defence industry developments in 2007 include the Russian government confirming plans to establish three shipyard holding companies. The firms have not been selected yet but some have been mentioned, namely Severnaya Verf and Baltiisky Zavod, which are majority-owned by Mezhprombank through United Industrial Corporation. The Kalingrad-based Yantar shipyard was also named as a possible candidate. The selected companies will cover a range of production lines, including naval ship and submarine production into a streamlined process. In Q307, Sukhoi Aviation and the Italian Aeronautica signed a US$25mn contract to jointly produce commercial aircraft. In recent years Sukhoi has managed to corner much of the Asia Pacific market, with significant orders from Indonesia. Indeed, following the success of Sukhoi-designed jets, the Russian aviation industry has managed to establish itself as a principal player in the global US$500bn military fighter and transport plane market. The Sukhoi-Aeronautica contract represents one of the first joint ventures into commercial aircraft.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Russia Political Overview SWOT

Russia Security SWOT

Russia Defence Industry SWOT

Russia Business Environment SWOT

Russia Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Overview

Internal Political Outlook

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Ratings

BMI’s Security Ratings

Table: Regional Security Ratings

Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Europe Regional Security Risk Rating Q406

Russia Terrorism Risk

Russia Physical Safety Risk

Russia Conflict Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Overview

Internal Security Situation

Table: Russia Insurgent Groups

Chechnya

External Security Situation

Chapter 5 - Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2005

Current Strength

Modernising The Military

Budget Issues

Historical Strength

International Deployments

Table: Russia Foreign Deployments

Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Chapter 6 - Market Overview

Restructuring The Russian Defence Industry

Industry Trends And Developments

Table: Key Players – Russia Defence Sector (2005)

Arms Trade Overview

Procurement Trends And Developments

Chapter 7 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Russia Defence Sector – Army Enlargements

Table: Russia Defence Sector – Government Expenditure

Chapter 8 - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Growth And Output

Private Demand To Remain Buoyant

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 9 - Company Profiles

Sukhoi Aviation Corporation

Uralvagonzavod

Irkut

Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)

Kazan Helicopters

Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant

Rosoboronexport

Chapter 10 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 11 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index Methodology

Competitive Landscape for European Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

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BMI's European Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Defence & Security Reports

Asia Europe Middle East & Africa North & South America
UK
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Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.