BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Vietnam is in the process of re-integrating into the international community, and as such much of its internal political and social structures have undergone change. Vietnam is also forging a role for itself in regional strategic and security developments, particularly with traditional allies. In Q407, Vietnam hosted a visit from North Korean officials, keen to learn from Vietnam's successful doi moi economic programme. Should the visit to Vietnam be successful, it is likely that the country may play a more significant strategic role in coaxing North Korea from its reclusive existence in Asia Pacific strategic relations.

In 2007, the Vietnamese government announced plans to reform the financial dealings of the Vietnam People's Army (VPA). The move to reform the private business enterprises of the Vietnamese armed forces is the result of it strengthening ties with other regional armed forces, which has kick-started the move towards a professionalised force focusing on conventional armed force duties. The move is part of the government's larger policy to consolidate all state-owned enterprises under the control of one umbrella group, and then to sell the stakes off to private investors to generate a steady revenue for the state for the next 10-20 years. Vietnam's defence spending continues to hover above US$3bn, but much of this money is allocated to wages and quality of life improvements. In 2005 the defence budget was estimated at US$3.15bn and in 2006 US$3.43bn. The 2007 budget is estimated at US$3.5bn.

Vietnam's local defence industry is smaller than that of its neighbours, including Thailand and Singapore, and thus the local defence industry faces stiff regional competition. Encouragingly, in Q207 the International Traffic in Armed Regulations amendment enabled the US to embark on examining two-way trade with Vietnam on non-lethal defence systems. In the long run this may provide Vietnam with additional export opportunities in the sale of small arms and light weapons.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Vietnam Security SWOT

Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT

Vietnam Political SWOT

Vietnam Economic SWOT

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Political Overview

BMI Core Scenario

Domestic Political Outlook

Chapter 4 - Security Risk Ratings

BMI’s Security Ratings

Table: Vietnam Regional Security Ratings

Table Vietnam State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Regional Security: South East Asia and Pacific Q406

Overview

Inter-State Conflicts

Internal Conflicts

Vietnam Physical Safety Risk Rating

Vietnam Terrorism Risk Rating

Vietnam Conflict Risk Rating

Chapter 5 - Security Overview

Internal Security Situation

Governance

Ninth Party Congress to Present

The Central Highlands

Religion

Disease

Piracy And Maritime Security

Table: Actual and Attempted Regional Piracy Attacks

Mines

External Security Situation

Bilateral Relations

Chapter 6 - Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Market Overview And Structure

Industry Trends & Developments

Arms Trade Overview

Procurement Trends & Developments

Chapter 7 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Army And Military Enlargement 30

Table: Vietnam Defence Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts

Government Expenditure On Defence Industry

Chapter 8 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Table: Output & Population

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Asia Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Asian Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: