Yemen Defencesecurity Industry Forecast

The Yemen Defence & Security Report

    • Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Yemen.
    • Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Yemen Defence and Security  industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Yemen defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Yemen.

The Yemen Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Yemen through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Yemen.

Business Monitor International's Yemen Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Yemen defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Yemen to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Yemen defence and security market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Yemen Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Yemen
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Yemen Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

 

Coverage

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and
foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

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Yemen faces a complex and dangerous mix of security problems. Its fiercely independent tribes have long been considered an important breeding ground for Al Qaeda Islamic extremists, and North Yemen is the ancestral homeland of Osama Bin Laden. A separate Shiite rebellion has dominated the northwest with alleged support from Iran – a ceasefire was implemented in mid-2007 but remains rather fragile. Separately, there are still tensions between North and South that can be traced back to the brief civil war of 1994. Tribesmen also seek to resolve a variety of local disputes over water, roads and electricity supplies among other things by kidnapping foreign tourists and negotiating for the their release. In addition there is a very large supply of weaponry in the country and scant regard for central authority. And while all this could be described as a security nightmare, the country in other respects has certain strengths. Since 9/11, Yemen has become a close ally in the US government's 'war on terror'. And although subject to authoritarian rule, in some respects Yemen offers greater political freedoms than many other Arab governments. A key figure in Yemen's balancing act is of course President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In 2007 his grip on power seemed as tight as ever. Calls for his departure were limited – much of the public fears that the country could revert into disorder should President Saleh step down.

Yemen now enjoys relatively stable relations with its neighbours following a decade of tensions over several bilateral territorial disputes, primarily with Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh is now supportive of the presidency in Sana'a. However, some security challenges are presented by internal instability in the postunification period. The military remains a favoured recipient of government investment, and procurements for all three branches of the armed forces continue despite overwhelming budget constraints and a lack of trained personnel to use the equipment. It is likely that Yemen will maintain its military strength and seek to further modernise specific sectors of its military to respond to new or existing terrorist threats. Yemen is completely dependent upon foreign procurements, as it enjoys no indigenous defence industry. Yemen's total dependence on the procurement of foreign produced arms forces the government to depend on a brisk arms trade, although not so brisk as some of its neighbours. Historically, Yemen has acquired Russian and ex-Soviet bloc states for military equipment, but recent signs suggest that Sana'a is seeking to diversify. The September 2004 lifting of a US arms embargo on Yemen has allowed entry for US firms into the Yemeni market. However, given budgetary restrictions, procurements have not yet taken place.

Sana'a is stabile for the time being but is under immense financial restraints. Oil production only began in Yemen in the 1990s and, while average incomes rose as a result, the industry only employs a small percentage of the workforce and has not succeeded in generating substantial wealth. However, Yemen maintains a high level of military expenditure relative to GDP. In 2005, Yemen spent approximately 7.5% of its GDP on the military. This trend is unlikely to change.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Yemen Political Overview SWOT

Yemen Security SWOT

Yemen Defence Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Overview

General Overview

Governance

Domestic Political Outlook

September 20 Elections

Short-Term Continuity – Long-Term Instability

Fiscal Reforms Will Continue To Stall

Succession Questions Persist

External Political Outlook

Uneasy Alliance

Washington Will Tolerate Hamas Talks

Dilemma Over US Relations

Al-Zindani Case Will Be Flashpoint

Al-Qaeda Jailbreak Adds To Embarrassment

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s Security Ratings

Risk Ratings

Table: Yemen Regional Security Ratings

Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Regional Security: The Middle East and North Africa

Inter-State Conflicts

Internal Conflicts

Yemen Security Risk Ratings

Yemen Conflict Risk

Yemen Terrorism Risk

Yemen Physical Safety Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Risk Profile

Internal Security Situation

Table: Yemeni Insurgent Groups

Historical Background

Unification And Civil War

Local Islamist Extremism

Zaidi-Muslim Cleric Hussein Badruddin al-Houthi

Clashes With The 'Believing Youth'

Heavy Fighting

Prisoner Release

Domestic Security Concerns Persist

External Security Situation

Regional Security Dynamics

Relations With Saudi Arabia

Pre-War Iraq

Links To Global Terror

USS Cole

Prison Break

US

Chapter 5 - Military Structure & Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006

Army

Navy

Air Force

International Deployments

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Market Structure

Arms Trade Overview

Procurement Trends & Development

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Yemen Defence Sector Size Of Armed Forces

Immediate Opportunities

Economy

Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Oil And Water Pose Key Risks

Risks To Core Scenario

Yemen: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 9 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index

Competitive Landscape for MEA Defence & Security: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Defence & Security Sources

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BMI's Middle East & Africa Defence & Security Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Defence & Security Reports

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