Denmark
In-depth country-focused analysis on Denmark's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Denmark's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Denmark, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Denmark's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Denmark before your competitors.

Country Risk

Denmark Country Risk

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Core Views 

  • Although Denmark is not part of the eurozone monetary union, its deep financial and trade links have been strengthened by its pegged exchange rate regime, leaving its open economy dependent on eurozone demand and significantly exposed to any flare up of the eurozone debt crisis.

  • A burst housing bubble and subsequent bank failures have made Denmark a Nordic underperformer, and the after-effects will continue to weigh on growth in the medium term. Although Denmark is in the process of staging a broad based economic recovery, the outlook remains dependent stable external demand and a sustained recovery in house prices.

  • Denmark's regional relative safe haven status faces few imminent risks given favourable public debt dynamics and stable fixed currency regime. However, this inflow of capital has masked structural economic...

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Denmark Industry Coverage (9)

Autos

Denmark Autos

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New vehicle sales have got off to a strong start across the first half of 2014, rising by 8.3% year-on-year, to reach 114,037 units, according to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportører (DBI). For the full year, BMI believes that this strong growth can be maintained, targeting an increase of 10%. Breaking down the headline figure, passenger car sales stood at 98,800 units, or 86.6% of total sales over H114, with commercial vehicles and buses making up the remaining 15,237 units (13.4% of total).

Our optimistic view on the Danish new car sales market is driven by a variety of factors. First, BMI's Country Risk team is expecting real GDP growth to accelerate to 1.3% and 1.6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, up from just 0.4% in 2013, on the back of a broad based improvement in domestic and external demand.

Encouragingly for the near-term...

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Food & Drink

Denmark Food & Drink

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BMI view:  We believe the Nordics food and drink market will be picking up growth after the difficult 2012 and 2013. Increasing consumer focus on health and wellness will drive the sales of natural and high quality food products, which are expected to outperform over the forecast period to 2018. That said, we note that subdued   consumer outlook and uncertain economic environment will continue to limit the overall region's potential.

Key Forecasts

Denmark

  • 2014 total food consumption value (local currency) growth (year-on-year) in Denmark: +4.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +4.9%

  • 2014 total soft drinks value sales...

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Insurance

Denmark Insurance

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BMI View: The continuing growth of occupational pensions will underpin the development of the life insurance segment in Denmark - and, indeed, the entire insurance sector. We also expect that there will be far greater change in the competitive landscape in the life segment than in the non-life segment.

In 2014, total insurance premiums in Denmark amount to over 9% of GDP or around USD5,300 per capita. Life premiums account for nearly two thirds of the total and are rising, in local currency terms, by around 5% annually - which means that they are growing more rapidly than nominal GDP. To a greater extent than in most other countries, the provision of life insurance in Denmark is closely linked with the delivery of occupational pensions products.

While it is correct to say that Denmark is widely applauded for the strengths of its retirement incomes system, it would also...

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Medical Devices

Denmark Medical Devices

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Espicom Industry View: Denmark represents a mature medical device market with above average per capita spending . The market is being constrained by stagnating economic growth, which is increasing pressure to scale back the country's generous welfare system. As such the market is only expected to show low growth with a US dollar CAGR of 1.9 % forecast for the 2013-2018 period. Local production is focused on consumables and patient aids, primarily hearing aids, leaving the majority of the market heavily dependent on imports.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • The medical device market is valued at US$1,587.3mn in 2013, equal to US$283 per capita. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% in US...

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Oil & Gas

Denmark Oil & Gas

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BMI View:   We expect a partial but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter, we highlight that exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period, notably for crude.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f ...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Denmark has a relatively small pharmaceutical market that is also restricted, like many other Western European countries, by its government ' s tough fiscal policies. The country ' s demand for quality healthcare and medicines will continue to be driven by its expanding aging population. However, this will see the government continue to target the healthcare sector with cost-containment measures. Despite this, we believe Denmark will remain an attractive market for drugmakers to operate in due to the country ' s high per-capita drug expenditure, transparent operating environment and strong regulatory climate.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: DKK20....

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Power

Denmark Power

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BMI View:   With   our fundamental assumptions for the three Nordic markets covered in this report unvaried,   our forecasts for their power sectors remain largely unvaried this quarter .   Overall, we maintain our view that , while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remains a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more pronounced financial stresses could undermine their economic...

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Renewables

Denmark Renewables

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BMI View :   We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in the Nordics this quarter as key projects in the region continue to progress in line with our expectations. We note that Denmark appears to be losing its energy self-sufficient status, and this is likely to lead to a greater focus on the development of renewables.

We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in the Nordics this quarter. This is because key projects in the region continue to progress in line with our expectations. For 2014, we are forecasting non-hydropower renewable generation to grow by 5.9% in both Denmark and Sweden and by 2.5% in Finland.

We have also maintained our long-term forecasts for non-hydropower renewable generation in the region this quarter. We expect non-...

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Telecommunications

Denmark Telecommunications

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BMI View:   The Danish telecommunications market is highly mature and increasingly focused around value-added premium services. Most notably, while the broadband market is growing steadily on the back of demand for converged services, the mobile sector is beginning to show signs of fatigue with periodic declines in subscriber numbers linked to the retirement of low-value or inactive acc ounts. Curiously, adoption of M2 M services lags behind other equally advanced European markets, although growth now seems to be accelerating. In this environment, there are scant opportunities for new or risk-averse investors, although the potential for niche value-added services is far from played out.

Key Data

  • The wireline market is...

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