Ethiopia
In-depth country-focused analysis on Ethiopia's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Ethiopia's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Ethiopia, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Ethiopia's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Ethiopia before your competitors.

Country Risk

Ethiopia Country Risk

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  • Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's death did not have the politically destabilising effect many anticipated, and his successor Hailemariam Desalegn's adherence to the status quo should see policy continuity right until the elections in 2015. Even so, we expect ethno-religious divisions and social unrest to be a source of tension over the coming months.

  • Ethiopia will be among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next few years and we are forecasting average growth of 6.0% annually between 2014 and 2017. Growth will be driven by heavy public investment into infrastructure and agriculture, and an increasingly buoyant consumer segment.

  • Inflation in Ethiopia has slowed markedly in recent years since reaching a peak of 40.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August 2011 and we expect inflation to remain relatively stable over the coming quarters, hovering broadly between 7.0 and 9.0...

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Ethiopia Industry Coverage (3)

Agribusiness

Ethiopia Agribusiness

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BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the medium term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. We see relatively pedestrian output growth for Ethiopia's coffee sector, but see upside risks as we have revised up our medium-term coffee price forecasts. In terms of grains, the country's food security is expected to remain relatively stable over the short term even though corn production declined year-on-year in 2014/15 due...

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Infrastructure

Ethiopia Infrastructure

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BMI View: According to BMI 's new construction industry real growth forecasts, Ethiopia is set to enjoy the second highest average growth rate over our 10 year forecast horizon. We forecast that between 2015 and 2023, Ethiopia's construction industry will average 10.4% real growth per annum. The government's focus on transport and energy infrastructure is providing multiple opportunities for international firms, although we note that risks in the market are high in comparison to regional peers.

Key Forecasts and Developments:

  • We forecast real growth of 10.1% over 2015 in Ethiopia's construction industry, following a particularly strong year of growth in 2014, estimated at 15.9% y-o-y.

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Telecommunications

Ethiopia Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our Q115 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. The five markets are characterised by relatively low mobile penetration rates, partly due to a combination of low urbanisation and low spending power in rural areas to support a strong business case for network expansion to those areas. While this guarantees long-term subscriptions growth for mobile operators in these countries, we expect then to focus on data services and other non-voice services in the short-term to drive revenue growth.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in Q314 was 2.4%. South Sudan recorded the highest growth...

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