BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

As the exact nature of the restrictions to be placed on mass grocery retail (MGR) expansion in Thailand have become clearer during the latter half of 2007, so has the fact that - despite their repeated threats - the country's leading MGRs are not yet done with Thailand after all. With all firms now subject to cumbersome central planning procedures and with international retailers required to amend their shareholding structures to become majority Thai-owned enterprises, there had been a fear that investment in Thailand's retail sector - one of its most important industries - would decline. However, developments from the last few months show that retailers remain committed to the market and the industry forecasts analysed in this report plainly show why.

The newly-named CP All - re-branded to reflect its commitment to more than just its franchised 7-Eleven operations - has reaffirmed its desire to expand in Thailand, announcing in late 2007 that it would open over 300 new convenience stores in the country in 2008, as well as extending the roll out of its new 999 convenience brand (the convenience network it operates separately from its 7-Eleven franchise). Meanwhile, Central Food Retail has been bullish about its chances of building market share, revealing that it could yet extend its innovative new community mall concept to 50 outlets as it looks to position itself at the forefront of premium grocery retailing. Both announcements follow news from multinationalbacked AEON (Thailand) Co, Siam FamilyMart and CenCar in the summer of 2007, that all were pursuing further expansion strategies in 2008.

Such commitment is of little surprise to BMI. Yes, Thailand is a challenging market with political uncertainty and government interference both clouding the picture for investors; and yes, this interference has forced us to amend our industry forecasts downwards in certain sub-sectors – for example, hypermarket sales are forecast to increase by 47% to 2012, compared to the industry average of 63%, while volume sales of alcohol are set to grow by just 13.8%, thanks to a strong anti-alcohol lobby and volume sales of cigarettes will fall by 3.5%, thanks to the government's highly efficient anti-smoking measures.

Nonetheless this is a ver opportune market. BMI is forecasting annual average GDP growth of 5.1% to 2012, while unemployment will remain low and inflation will remain stable. Within this economic environment consumer confidence will be high and food consumption in overall dollar terms is forecast to increase by 18.5% to 2012, as the population continues to trade up to higher value food and beverage products. Innovative industry categories that are free of, or can circumvent, government legislation, are set to be the main beneficiaries of this strong domestic market: the soft drinks sector which BMI expects to grow by 30.8% to 2012, and the convenience retail sector, in which sales are forecast to increase by an enormous 100.7% over the next five years, being two such examples.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 – Business Environment

Retail Business Environment Rankings

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Rankings

SWOT Analysis

Thailand Food & Drink Industry SWOT

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output And Population

Chapter 2 – Retail

Regional Overview

Regional Overview – Private Labelling in Asia Pacific

Table: Assessment Of Private Label Qualities – By Region

Table: Leading Private Label Categories By Market Share & Annual Growth Rate

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Thailand MGR Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Company Developments

Market Overview

Table: Structure of Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Number of Outlets

Table: Structure of Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value by Format (US$bn)

Table: Average Sales per Outlet by Format (US$mn) - 2005

Chapter 3 – Food & Drink

Regional Overview – Dairy in Asia

Table: Per-Capita Dairy Consumption (kg) & Consumption Growth In Selected Asian Markets

Table: Milk Production (000 tonnes) & Production Growth In Selected Asian Markets

Table: Dairy Production (000 tonnes) Forecasts In Selected Asian Markets

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Company Developments

Market Overview

Table: Thailand Agricultural Sub-Sector Production – Historical Data

Chapter 4 – Tobacco

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Company Developments

Market Overview

Chapter 5 – Competitive Landscape

Key Players

Key Players in Thailand’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – 2005

Table: Key Players in Thailand's Food & Drink Sector – 2005

Asia Pacific Regional Company Case Studies

AEON in Asia Pacific

Table: AEON Five-year Financials (JPYmn)

Table: Speciality Store Network (as at February 20 2006)

Coca-Cola Amatil in Asia Pacific

Table: Coca-Cola Amatil Five-Year Financials

Table: Coca-Cola Amatil Market Share By Country And By Beverage Sub-sector – As At Year-End 2005

Table: SPC Ardmona Market Share By Product Category

Heineken in Asia Pacific

Table: Heineken – Brands Distributed In The Asia Pacific Region

Table: Contribution Of Asia Pacific Region To Heineken 2005 Financial Performance

Kraft in Asia Pacific

Table: 2005 Kraft Global Facts

Company Analysis

Central Food Retail

Thai Beverage Plc (ThaiBev)

Tesco Lotus

Carrefour

CP 7-Eleven Co Ltd

Casino Group – Big C

Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc

Thai Asia Pacific Brewery

Thai President Foods Plc

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Retail Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Asia Food & Drink Reports: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

[TOP]

At-a-glance perspective on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing each market’s food & drink industry. BMI also provides similar economic and business environment studies. Company SWOTs (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) covering all leading food and drink companies operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning of multinationals against local companies; leading products, services and brands; sales and local market share; foreign direct investment, projects, partners and acquisition strategy. Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets, number of employees and registration dates. BMI analyses each company’s performance, market position, strategy and investment potential.

Network of Asain Food Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Asian Food Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, food industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: