BMI's Executive Summary

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Ministers for Italy, Greece and Turkey (IGT) signed an agreement to develop a system of pipelines to import gas from the Caspian basin and the Middle East to Italy passing through Greece and Turkey, it was announced at the end of July 2007. The corridor – developed by Edison of Italy, Greece's Depa and Desfa and Turkey's Botas – was scheduled to start operations by the end of 2012, against a previous forecast of end-2011. The project consists of three sections: the Turkish gas network, which will be enlarged to allow the transmission of gas to Greece and Italy; the IGT pipeline linking Turkey to Greece; and the IGI pipeline linking Greece to Italy. The IGT pipeline was expected go onstream in 2007 with a annual top capacity of about 11.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas, while the IGI pipeline, connecting Italy's and Greece's networks, would have an 8bcm capacity and would start operating by the end of 2012. Taking this and other projects into account, in our latest Greece Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that Greek oil and gas pipeline throughput will grow by a healthy average of 5.0% over each year of the 2008-2012 forecast period.

Our forecast is supported by various factors. The Greek economy itself will grow at an average rate of 3.3% per annum in the next five years, but we expect energy demand to exceed that. Most importantly, Greece is beginning to carve out a role as something of an oil and gas pipeline transit hub, with a variety of projects at different stages of development. The government has said that it sees important advantages in forging a role for Greece as an international energy hub.

Pipeline developments come against the background of an upbeat outlook for the freight industry in general. By transport modes, one of the strongest performances will be delivered by airfreight, which we expect to grow by an annual average of 4.9% over the 2008-2012 period, measured in terms of million tonnes-km (mntkm). It should be pointed out, however, that in the context of double-digit airfreight growth in many other countries, this is comparatively speaking a fairly low growth rate. This is a reflection of some of the uncertainties over the future of Olympic Airlines. Road haulage should see 4.9% annual traffic growth. In shipping, Greek lines have benefited from the effects of the global boom. We expect annual average sea freight growth to be 3.5% per annum, a figure that reflects the relative slowdown that is developing in global shipping markets. Rail freight, responsible for only a very small share of total haulage, will grow by 3.3% per annum. Overall, BMI is forecasting that the Greek freight transport sector will grow at an average annual rate of 4.2% over the 2008-2012 period. This is consistent with the country's position in the mid-range of market development, on the geographic periphery of the European region, but likely to benefit from growing trade links. Greece scores a total of 37 (out of a theoretical maximum of 70) for its freight industry business environment ranking, which places it at the low end among its regional peers. The country scores strongly for political and economic risk but does less well in the other categories, such as transport sector growth and the regulatory and competitive environment. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$31.2bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 7.7% of Greece's GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 247,000 people, or 6.2% of the labour force, in 2006. We see those employed in the industry rising to 251,000 by 2012.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Greek Shipping Industry SWOT

Greece Economic SWOT

Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Overview

Europe Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Freight Transport Growth

Transport Infrastructure Growth

Regulatory Environment

Competitive Environment

Transport Intensity Index

Short-Term Political Risk

Short-Term Economic risk

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Red Tape

Labour Force

Chapter 4 - Industry Trends And Developments

Road

Air

Sea

Pipelines

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Economic Growth

Chapter 6 - Transport Outlook

Freight carried (domestic and international):

Table: Freight Transport Indicators

Chapter 7 - Country Snapshot: Greece Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 8 - Trade Environment

Table: Value Of Imports By Category

Table: Value Of Exports By Category

Table: Top Export Destinations (US$mn)

Table: Export Trade (% y-o-y)

Table: Top Import Sources

Table: Import Trade (% y-o-y)

Chapter 9 - Market Overview

Multi-modal

Infrastructure

Road

Competitive Landscape: Road

Rail

Competitive Landscape: Rail

Air

Competitive Landscape: Aviation

Water

Competitive Landscape: Maritime

Company Profiles

Pipelines

Competitive Landscape: Pipelines

Chapter 10 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Transport Industry

Sources

Chapter 11 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Europe Freight Transport Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector – road, rail, air, sea, logistics – including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development. SWOT analysis of the state’s business environment, transport sector, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Network of European Freight Sources

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BMI's European Freight Transport Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, freight transport industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: