BMI's Executive Summary

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In October 2007 President Nursultan Nazarbaev said that his government would implement a total of 80 investment projects, worth around US$30bn in the period to 2015, as part of its new transport programme. The aims of the programme included laying around 1,600km of new railway track, electrifying 2,700km of existing railways, and building or repairing 50,000km of roads across the country. The government also intends to modernise airport infrastructure, develop the merchant fleet, and expand port and navigable waterway infrastructure. Driving this ambitious programme is the fact that Kazakhstan is sitting on a lot of oil and gas – 29bn barrels of proven reserves at present, which is likely to rise further according to officials. One of the key issues for the freight transport industry as the country pushes ahead with development plans, which could make it one of the world's top five oil exporters, is how to shift all this oil and get it to consumers in both the West (Europe) and the East (principally China). At present there are four main export routes, the latest of which started pumping crude to China in 2006. Two further routes are being proposed. In our Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report 2008, BMI concludes that pipeline throughput can be expect to increase by an annual average of 13.9% per annum

Various factors support this prediction. The most important is the rapid pace of development of new oil and gas fields, and strong demand from customers to both East and West. The forecast is also underpinned by strong economic growth and a particularly dynamic future for foreign trade over the next five years.

The overall outlook for the Kazakh freight transport sector is very positive. The rail sector is poised to gain from a round of new state investment in locomotives and track, which should take the annual rise in volume to 13.3% in the 2008-2012 period. Then comes airfreight, based on the expected growth of Air Astana and others, at 13.2%. Road haulage will grow slowest, but will still achieve an impressive 12.6% expansion rate. Kazakhstan scores 49 out of a theoretical maximum of 70, compared with an average of 45.0 for its regional peers, in our freight business environment rating. This high score reflects the country's strength in transport intensity – a measure of the dynamism of foreign trade – and freight growth. Areas for improvement include the regulatory and competitive environments.

The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US14.22bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 7.4% of Kazakhstan's GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 519,000 people, or 7.2% of the labour force, last year. We see the total figure falling slightly to 516,000 by 2012 (Kazakhstan has a contracting population) but remaining at 7.2% of the total.

Competitive Landscape for Europe Freight Transport Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector – road, rail, air, sea, logistics – including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development. SWOT analysis of the state’s business environment, transport sector, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Network of European Freight Sources

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BMI's European Freight Transport Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, freight transport industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: