BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Freight Transport Sector Of Oman

Arguably the single most important development in the Omani freight transport sector is the work currently been carried out to complete the port of Sohar. This is currently one of the largest single port developments in the world and when completed later this year, it will be capable of taking ships of 18m draught. It covers an area 20sqkm and has sucked in investments of over US$12bn. Sohar differs from most ports in the region in that it is a port and manufacturing hub built as one integrated unit. In our first Oman Freight Transport Report, Business Monitor International (BMI) concludes that maritime cargo will grow in tonnage terms at an annual average rate of 5.0% over the next five years.

Various factors support this prediction. According to our forecasts, based on oil and increasingly gas exports, Oman’s GDP will grow by an average annual rate of 3.9% over the 2006-2010 forecast period, a little slower than the 4.2% average registered across the preceding five years. While this will provide support for shipping demand, the development of Sohar will be a clear boost. Strategically situated along the world’s major shipping lanes, the busy and rapidly growing markets of Dubai, Iran and the Indian sub-continent, Sohar has the twin advantage of being outside the Strait of Hormuz and inside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) customs union. The port is within 300km of one of the world’s largest gas reserves, in Qatar. Its position outside the Gulf also guarantees lower insurance premiums.

The overall outlook for the freight business in Oman is encouraging. By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be air cargo, which will expand by an annual average of 11.7%, supported by a strong showing from Oman Air and the recovery of Gulf Air. We estimate that road haulage should continue to grow a little faster than GDP at 4.3% per annum. In total, freight will grow by 4.6% per annum across all transport modes during the 2006-2010 forecast period.

For the 2006-2010 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.5%, versus 3.9% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$3.64bn in nominal terms by 2010, representing 9.5% of Oman’s GDP.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Sohar Port SWOT

Oman Politics SWOT

Oman Economy SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Overview

Regional Overview

Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Freight Transport Growth

Transport Infrastructure Growth

Regulatory Environment

Competitive Environment

Transport Intensity Index

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Corruption/Red Tape

Labour Force

Chapter 4 - Industry Trends and Developments

Road

Air

Sea

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Oman: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Chapter 6 - Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Transport Outlook

Table: Freight Carried (domestic and international):

Table: Oman Macro Indicators

Chapter 7 - Trade Environment

Foreign Trade Regime

Table: Value of Imports By Category (US$mn)

Table: Value Of Exports By Category (US$mn)

Chapter 8 - Market Overview

Multimodal

Infrastructure

Road

Infrastructure

Rail

Air

Infrastructure

Company Profiles

Water

Infrastructure

Company Profiles

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Transport Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Freight Transport Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector – road, rail, air, sea, logistics – including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development. SWOT analysis of the state’s business environment, transport sector, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Network of Middle Eastern & African Freight Transport Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern & African Freight Transport Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, freight transport industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: