Africa Country Risk Articles

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Agreement Signed, But Framework Hollow

BMI View: The Addis Ababa 'Framework Agreement' signed on February 24 is more a statement of principles than a detailed peace plan, and we doubt it will meaningfully improve the security situation in...

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Trade Deficit To Persist

BMI View: Merchandise trade figures from Senegal's national statistics agency have confirmed our view that the country's relative lack of natural resources and uncompetitive economy will perpetuate a...

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Mali Crisis Crib Sheet And FAQ

The decision by French President Francois Hollande to launch airstrikes against Islamist militias occupying northern Mali has escalated the crisis in the West African state. Below, we highlight our...

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Stagflation Scenario To Continue

BMI View: We hold to our view that the South African Reserve Bank will keep the repo rate on hold at 5.00% over the whole of 2013. Although South Africa faces a weak growth outlook and risks are to...

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Coup Risks Rising

BMI View: Egypt is at risk of a military coup, if President Mohamed Morsi continues to lose control of the country, or is perceived as such. However, if the armed forces were to seize power, this...

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Hostage Crisis: Key Implications

BMI View: The hostage crisis in eastern Algeria is a blow to the country’s investment appeal, and demonstrates that the Sahel region is an increasingly important front in the war against...

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Conflict Crib Sheet And FAQ

The conflict in Syria has been deadlocked for some time, but the momentum appears to have shifted in favour of the rebels fighting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Assad has proved more...

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Tepid Growth Ahead

BMI View: We forecast tepid economic growth for South Africa over the medium term, forecasting that real GDP will expand by 2.8% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014. Although private consumption should remain...

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