BMI View Playing Out As Growth Continues
Passenger car sales in Spain increased 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January 2014, to 53,436 units. BMI forecasts 2.8% growth for the full year on the back of the extension of the vehicle scrappage scheme buoying sentiment and pent-up demand from sustained declines in recent years, despite the country's consumer story remaining fairly weak. Furthermore, we expect growth in the first half of the year to be boosted by low base effects from a weak H113 ( see graph), in line with the January figure.
Consumer Story Rebounding?
BMI believes that, although it is set to remain very weak, Spanish private consumption is beginning to show signs of a turnaround, and we expect it to begin moving along a modest upward trajectory over the coming quarters. Unemployment has moderated slightly in recent months, although it is still very high by historical standards, and there are some signs pointing to a rebound in consumer confidence.
|Further Growth Expected|
|Spain Monthly Passenger Car Sales, Units|