Core Views Reiterated Following Q213 Growth Print


BMI View: In typical fashion, China's Q213 real GDP growth print came in bang on expectations, at 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) . Still, the headline number does confirm what we have long suspected - that the first quarter upswing in mainland economic activity would prove temporary. In this article, we reiterate our baseline scenario for the Chinese economy, which is calling for further growth weakness and macro instability in the coming quarters.

In typical fashion, China's second quarter real GDP growth print came in bang on expectations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the economy grew by 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms in Q213, a slight slowdown from the previous quarter's 7.7% outturn. We do not read too much into the headline number provided by Beijing given the lack of a granular breakdown and growing question marks over the transparency of official data. Nonetheless, the 7.5% number has confirmed what we have long suspected - that the first quarter upswing in mainland economic activity would prove temporary. In this article, we reiterate our baseline scenario for the Chinese economy.

1) Monthly Data Paints A Worse Picture

Growth Relapse Underway
China - Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y

or Register now for free to read the full article

This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk
Geography: China, China, China, China