Demographic Forecast - Demographic Outlook 2012


Demographic analysis is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the demographic profile is key to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements.

The accompanying charts detail Singapore's population pyramid for 2011, the change in the structure of the population between 2011 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050, as well as life expectancy. The tables show key datapoints from all of these charts, in addition to important metrics including the dependency ratio and the urban/rural split.

Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012f 2015f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Total 3,017 3,482 3,919 4,266 5,086 5,256 5,375 5,597
0-4 years 229 299 256 214 231 245 256 267
5-9 years 212 247 303 284 281 256 238 261
10-14 years 207 229 283 337 374 351 291 244
15-19 years 253 224 254 283 367 389 385 297
20-24 years 310 273 255 261 320 338 379 394
25-29 years 345 333 321 257 376 358 330 387
30-34 years 338 370 349 310 391 399 386 337
35-39 years 282 362 388 377 390 392 402 393
40-44 years 223 303 376 417 460 446 402 408
45-49 years 138 238 315 406 428 455 473 409
50-54 years 123 148 248 338 416 432 440 479
55-59 years 103 129 151 261 340 380 422 444
60-64 years 85 106 133 160 255 292 340 419
65-69 years 61 84 107 132 162 194 249 330
70-74 years 46 57 82 99 121 130 153 233
75+ years 61 78 100 131 176 199 230 295
Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012f 2015f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
0-4 years 7.58 8.59 6.53 5.02 4.53 4.66 4.76 4.77
5-9 years 7.02 7.10 7.72 6.65 5.52 4.86 4.43 4.66
10-14 years 6.86 6.57 7.21 7.90 7.34 6.68 5.41 4.35
15-19 years 8.38 6.44 6.47 6.63 7.21 7.40 7.17 5.31
20-24 years 10.28 7.83 6.51 6.11 6.29 6.44 7.04 7.04
25-29 years 11.43 9.58 8.19 6.02 7.40 6.82 6.14 6.91
30-34 years 11.19 10.64 8.91 7.27 7.70 7.59 7.18 6.03
35-39 years 9.36 10.40 9.89 8.85 7.66 7.46 7.47 7.01
40-44 years 7.40 8.70 9.58 9.78 9.04 8.49 7.47 7.30
45-49 years 4.56 6.84 8.04 9.51 8.42 8.65 8.79 7.31
50-54 years 4.09 4.24 6.34 7.92 8.18 8.22 8.19 8.56
55-59 years 3.43 3.72 3.84 6.12 6.68 7.23 7.86 7.92
60-64 years 2.83 3.05 3.40 3.75 5.01 5.55 6.33 7.49
65-69 years 2.04 2.42 2.73 3.08 3.18 3.69 4.63 5.90
70-74 years 1.53 1.65 2.08 2.33 2.37 2.48 2.84 4.16
75+ years 2.03 2.25 2.55 3.07 3.46 3.78 4.28 5.28
Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012f 2015f 2020f
f = BMI forecast; 1 0>15 plus 65+, as % of total working age population; 2 0>15 plus 65+; 3 15-64, as % of total population; 4 15-64; 5 0>15, % of total working age population; 6 0>15; 7 65+, % of total working age population; 8 65+. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Dependent ratio, % of total working age 1 37.1 40.0 40.5 39.0 35.9 35.4 35.8 41.1
Dependent population, total, '000 2 816 995 1,130 1,197 1,343 1,374 1,416 1,630
Active population, % of total 3 72.9 71.4 71.2 71.9 73.6 73.9 73.7 70.9
Active population, total, '000 4 2,200 2,487 2,790 3,069 3,743 3,882 3,959 3,967
Youth population, % of total working age 5 29.4 31.2 30.1 27.2 23.6 21.9 19.8 19.4
Youth population, total, '000 6 647 775 841 835 885 851 785 771
Pensionable population, % of total working age 7 7.7 8.8 10.3 11.8 12.2 13.5 15.9 21.6
Pensionable population, '000 8 169 220 289 362 458 523 631 858
Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Urban population, % of total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Rural population, % of total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Urban population, '000 3,047.0 3,524.5 4,027.9 4,265.8 5,086.4 5,256.3 5,375.3 5,596.8
Rural population, '000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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