Election's Results: Key Views Reaffirmed
BMI View: Preliminary results from Iraq's parliamentary election reinforce our view that a protracted period of coalition building will follow. Sectarian tensions will remain elevated in 2014 as a result, and delays in the approval of the 2014 budget will hinder the macroeconomic outlook. The overall outcome of the vote will not fundamentally alter Iraq's dysfunctional political system.
Preliminary results from Iraq's April 30 parliamentary election reaffirm our core view that although current Shi'a prime minister Nouri al-Maliki won a relative majority of votes, a protracted period of coalition building will follow (see 'Election Primer: Vote Unlikely To Foster Fundamental Change', April 16').
Iraq's High Election Commission announced on May 19 that 62% of the 22mn eligible voters in the country cast ballots. Maliki's State of Law coalition won 92 of the 328 seats in the Council of Representatives. While Maliki won three more seats than in the previous election in 2010, he fell short of achieving the 165 seats needed to form a government. Maliki's victory was significantly aided by increasing fragmentation in Iraqi politics. His two main Shi'a rivals, the Mowatin party and the Ahrar movement - loyal to influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr - won 31 and 28 seats respectively. Two smaller parties formed by Sadrist supporters drew a combined six additional seats, and could team up with Ahrar.
|A Fragmented Polity|
|Iraq - Preliminary Results Of 2014 Parliamentary Elections|