Europe Country Risk Views

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Crisis: Likely To Stop With Crimea

Russia's decision to assume de facto control of Crimea over the weekend has substantially raised political risks in Ukraine. While our core view is that Russia will consolidate control in Crimea and...

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Will Russia Invade?

We still believe direct military aggression by Russia in Ukraine is unlikely at this stage. However, we cannot completely rule it out, particularly if the violence between Ukrainian and ethnic...

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Energy To Keep External Deficit Wide

Despite a sharp slowdown in domestic demand, Turkey's current account deficit will remain uncomfortably high in 2014 at 6.0% of GDP due to relatively inelastic demand for imported energy. Turkey will...

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New PM Renzi Faces Uphill Battle

We view positively the urgent reform agenda of incoming Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. However, he will struggle to gain sufficient support for his policy goals from a fractious coalition and...

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