Global Autos Update: Developed States Have The Edge
Before car sales for the first quarter of 2014 are released, we take a look at how the first two months stacked up and where revisions to our full year forecasts have been made. The most notable changes have been an upward revision to Spain's car sales forecast, which has had a notably positive effect on the Core Europe compound forecast, while the worsening situation in Turkey has prompted a downward revision to our forecast. Our table now shows a definite leaning toward the developed states in terms of achieving positive sales growth in 2014.
Spanish Resurgence Prompts Upgrade
Our 2014 forecast for the Core Europe states (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and UK) has risen from 1.9% to 2.4% growth, following an upward revision of Spain's sales outlook. Passenger car sales in Spain increased 17.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February, to 68,763 units, which means over the first two months, have increased 13.1% y-o-y, to 122,199 units. We have revised our full-year forecast up to 9% growth on the back of the extension of the vehicle scrappage scheme, which is buoying sentiment, while pent-up demand from sustained declines in recent years is also helping to drive sales, despite the country's weak consumer story dampening demand for big ticket purchases.
|Pent Up Demand Driving Rebound?|
|Spain Passenger Car Sales (CBUs)|