Global Themes - Unemployment: Structural And Polarised
The surge in global unemployment has proven to be an enduring scar of the financial crisis and one that has still not fully healed. The implications of fundamental shifts in the structure of the labour market are substantial and wide-ranging, and present major challenges to policymaking.
The US labour market continues to improve, setting the stage for sustained Federal Reserve QE tapering. We continue to see US Treasury yields heading higher in the months ahead, particularly as the risks to our employment outlook are to the upside.
Employment trends across emerging markets are mixed, with economic slowdowns in several countries resulting in loosening labour markets. In general, we do not see labour market tightness as a problem in most emerging markets.
|Digging Beneath Headline Unemployment|
|US & UK Labour Force Participation Rates, %|