Iraq Key Analysis

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Growth Forecasts Revised Downward

We have modestly revised downward Iraq's 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts. Increasing political instability will result in a marked decline in the expansion of the domestic economy, however...

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No Immediate Threat To Oil Supply

We see no immediate threat to Iraqi oil supplies from attacks by the Islamist militant group ISIS, and we maintain our Brent forecast of USD108/bbl for 2014. We do not expect major gains for ISIS in...

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US Air Strikes Increasingly Likely

Risks that the US will carry out military air strikes in Iraq have increased significantly following attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). Iran is expected to further aid the...

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