Country Risk Key Analysis

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Referendum Demand Will Raise Tensions

Opposition leader Raila Odinga's escalating protest movement will increase political and ethnic tensions in Kenya. Calls for a referendum are controversial, but no poll is likely to take place.

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Growth Forecasts Revised Downward

We have modestly revised downward Iraq's 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts. Increasing political instability will result in a marked decline in the expansion of the domestic economy, however...

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Small Fiscal Deficit Belies Profligacy

Increased spending, much of which relates to upcoming elections, is as much to blame for Nigeria's recent fiscal deterioration as lower-than-planned oil production. The deficit will remain small at...

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Kenyan SMEs Set To Outperform

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face challenges across Sub-Saharan Africa, but those in Kenya are better placed than most to grow and succeed. An improving business environment, a technologically...

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First Step On Long Road To EU Accession

Moldova's signing of an Association Agreement (AA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union, alongside Ukraine and Georgia on June 27, marks a significant step...

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Regional Eurobond Yields To Rise

Although Sub-Saharan African yields have broadly been on the decline during the first half of 2014, we remain of the view that the asset class offers little value. We expect yields across the board...

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