Country Risk Views

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Scottish Referendum Primer

Although we still believe that the upcoming Scottish independence referendum in September will be rejected by the electorate, the Unionists may only win by a single digit lead. Such a small margin...

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No Immediate Threat To Oil Supply

We see no immediate threat to Iraqi oil supplies from attacks by the Islamist militant group ISIS, and we maintain our Brent forecast of USD108/bbl for 2014. We do not expect major gains for ISIS in...

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US Air Strikes Increasingly Likely

Risks that the US will carry out military air strikes in Iraq have increased significantly following attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). Iran is expected to further aid the...

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