Ukraine Key Analysis

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Crisis: Likely To Stop With Crimea

Russia's decision to assume de facto control of Crimea over the weekend has substantially raised political risks in Ukraine. While our core view is that Russia will consolidate control in Crimea and...

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Will Russia Invade?

We still believe direct military aggression by Russia in Ukraine is unlikely at this stage. However, we cannot completely rule it out, particularly if the violence between Ukrainian and ethnic...

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Gas Leverage A Possible Russian Tool

Russia has a considerable lever on Ukraine through the gas it supplies to the country. Given that Russia has on two occasions used gas supply cuts as a political leverage on Ukraine, the current...

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Global Wheat Outlook: EU Focus

We forecast overall wheat production in the 28 countries of the EU to stagnate at around 141.0mn tonnes in 2014/15, as farmers have continued to favour wheat over barley and corn because wheat prices...

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