Long-Term Forecasts Revised On Solar Flare


BMI View : We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter as recent developments in the sector are unlikely to impact our near-term forecasts. However, we have revised up our long-term forecasts for the sector to account for a surge in interest in solar energy. 

We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter. While there were a number of major developments in the sector over the third quarter of 2014, these developments are unlikely to have any foreseeable impact on our forecasts over the near-term.

We are forecasting 1.3GW of new wind capacity in 2014, with the majority coming from projects that have been awarded power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the A-3 and Reserve power auctions in 2011. A total of 1.9GW of PPAs were awarded to wind projects during the two auctions, but we expect a number of these projects to experience delays or even cancellations. Information released by the Brazilian electricity regulatory agency ANEEL in October 2013 showed that a large number of wind projects were behind schedule ( see 'Brazil Renewables: Moderations To Wind, Mixed Overall', October 23 2013). An example of such a delay was evident in March, when Renova Energia had to postpone the launch of six of its wind farms with a combined capacity of 153MW. The delay occurred because the federal utility Chesf had not completed construction of the substation.

Wind Playing Catch Up
Brazil - Non-Hydropower Capacity By Type, MW

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Renewables
Geography: Brazil