Maliki To Be Ousted From Power
BMI View: Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will fail to retain his position, and prime minister-designate Haider al-Abadi will succeed in forming an inclusive governing coalition over the coming months. While this will increase potential for Iraq to maintain formal unity, the political crisis in the country will continue over the coming years.
Recent developments reaffirm our view that Iraq's Shi'a Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will fail to retain his position for a third term (see 'Rising Risk Of State Collapse - Scenarios Assessed', June 23). On August 11, the country's new President Fouad Masoum designated Haider al-Abadi, a member of Maliki's Shiite Islamist Dawa party, to form the next government and replace Maliki. However, the prime minister rejected Abadi's nomination and vowed to challenge the decision. He also issued a letter rejecting the authority of the Shi'a National Alliance grouping in parliament, a political group of which the State of Law Alliance - which coalesces around Maliki's Dawa party - is part. More importantly, special forces loyal to Maliki were deployed on August 10 in strategic areas of Baghdad, a sign that he might be willing to retain power by force.
Maliki Increasingly Isolated...
|Abadi's Potential Tenure To Lessen Risks|
|MENA - Political Risk Rating|