Military Coup Raises Civil War Threat


BMI View: The Thai military's assumption of power following failed talks between rival factions in the ongoing political crisis raises the prospect of an unelected government being installed. Such a move would risk a violent pro-government backlash, and we maintain our view that the path of least resistance is for escalating violent unrest.

Just two days after the Thai military announced the imposition of martial law while stressing that the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) government would remain in power, failed talks between rival factions have resulted in the army's assumption of power, marking the country's 12th coup d'état in just over 80 years. This also marks the third time in 13 years that power has been taken away from the PTP by court rulings or coups.

As we argued on May 21 (see 'Political Deadlock At A Crossroads As Military Enters Scene'), the Thai establishment has been closing in on the government over recent months, and the introduction of the military into the struggle raises the odds that an unelected government will ultimately be put in place. The probability of this has now increased further.

Major Wealth Disparity Underpins Crisis
Thailand - GDP Per Capita By Province, USD

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Related sectors of this article: Political Risk
Geography: Thailand