On The Ground: Scenarios For South Sudan Crisis
BMI View : The conflict in neighbouring South Sudan presents a huge economic and military challenge for Sudan over at least the medium term, although it also provides an opportunity to reclaim a degree of influence over oil-rich territories, which it lost when the former gained independence.
BMI visited South Sudan in December 2013. Here, we present our findings and consider the implications for Sudan.
South Sudan's descent into civil war brings huge complications to Sudan, just two and half years since the former gained its independence. The fighting which broke out in South Sudan's capital, Juba, between elements of the presidential guard in mid-December 2013 has quickly spread to affect at least five of the new country's ten states, with conflict particularly intense in oil-rich Unity and Upper Nile, both of which border Sudan. The latter's economy depends heavily on royalties paid by landlocked South Sudan for the use of two pipelines, which carry output to Port Sudan, on the Red Sea.
|Oil Economy Disrupted By Political Instability|
|Sudan/South Sudan Unplanned Supply Outages (b/d)|