Poland And Turkey To Drive Regional Expansion


BMI View: Thanks to BMI's unique analytical tools and proprietary databases, we have developed an in-depth analysis of the non-hydro renewables industry in the Central Eastern Europe (CEE) region, identifying a number of key trends. Most notably, we note that wind power is set to dominate the renewables industry across our forecast period, and we expect Turkey and Poland to maintain their leading regional positions, driving the CEE expansion.

Using our ten- year forecasts, we have collated the cumulative non-hydro renewables capacity across the region for 2021, determining that wind is the tech nology of choice for the region. We thus expect strong levels of growth across the decade for the wind segment , both in terms of capacity and generation; driving the non-hydro renewables sector and contributing roughly 80% to the total by 2021 .

Wind Set To Blow
CEE Total Non-hydro Renewables Capacity, By Technology, 2021f

O ur Renewables Risk/Rewards Ratings, which help us to gauge the specific factors that affect the investment c limate in the renewables sector, highlight that t he picture that emerges is relatively nuanced. Yet, we note that Poland tops the table , with the highest overall renewables rating by quite some margin, and posts the highest scores for both Risks and Rewards. This is primarily attributed to the very high projected growth rates in renewables capacity and generation across our forecast period, most notably within the wind sector.

W ith EU regulations targeting both carbon emissions and renewable energy sources, Poland is feeling pressured to diversify its coal-heavy electricity mix towards renewables . As a result they have adopted ambitious renewables targets and ' Renewable Energy Certificates ' (RECs) to help support the development of renewable projects. Thus prompting high scores for those indicators in the R/R ratings.

CEE Opportunities
CEE Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100 (LHS) and Total Non-Hydro Generation, TWh, By Country, 2021f

BMI has long held the view that Turkey presents significant opportunities for renewables developers, on account of its vast array of natural potential for solar, wind and geothermal power. The country has developed a strong project pipeline for wind farms in particular and we forecast average annual growth rates in the wind segment of 22.53% between 2012 and 2021. In fact, we expect Turkey ' s total non-hydro renewables generation to be the greatest in the region by 2021.

Boosting the outlook for the renewables industry is the seemingly strong political will driving the expansion, with an ambitious target for renewables in place and an attractive feed-in-tariff introduced by the government helping to attract investment. That said, the Renewables R/R ratings highlight the challenges still present within the country , including widespread corruption and intern al and external political risk. The financial uncertainty surrounding renewable energy projects is also likely to hinder the development of the industry .