Q413 GDP Print Reaffirms Bright Outlook
BMI View: Real GDP growth in Colombia came in at 4.3% in 2013, above our 4.1% estimate, prompting us to make upward revisions to our growth outlook. We now forecast real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2014 and 4.7% in 2015, compared to 4.5% and 4.7% previously. The main drivers of a faster expansion in real GDP growth will be robust private consumption and export growth.
Colombian real GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q413, down from 5.4% y-o-y in Q313 as gross fixed capital investment growth moderated. However, the Q413 GDP print, combined with data revisions of past quarters by the national statistics agency (DANE), put annual real GDP growth at 4.3% in 2013, slightly above our 4.1% estimate. As a result, we have made upward adjustments to our growth outlook and now forecast real GDP to expand by 4.6% in 2014 and 4.7% in 2015, compared to our previous 4.5% and 4.7% growth projections for those years. We continue to expect the main drivers of stronger real GDP growth to be a gradual acceleration in real private consumption and robust export performance, especially in the coal sector (see' Growth To Re-Accelerate In 2014 And 2015 As Consumption And Exports Pick Up', February 26).
Consumer Spending Will Gradually Accelerate
|2014 Will Be Another Year Of Strong Growth|
|Colombia - Real GDP Growth|