Regional Sales Edge Up In Line With BMI View
Passenger car sales in the European Union (EU-27) declined 6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first six months of 2013, to 6,204,990 units. This follows a 5.6% y-o-y fall in June. Generally, much of the sales drop this year has been led by substantial declines in Western European markets, which constitute a large percentage of total regional sales, although many of the smaller markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have als o fallen sharply over H113 .
BMI maintains a generally bearish view on passenger car sales across Europe over the year, although we expect the falls to less than in 2012. This view is playing out. Generally, the macro outlook for much of the region remains poor, although our view on private consumption in some markets is improving somewhat from last year. We have previously highlighted that the 'risks to our forecasts remain firmly to the downside, as a further deterioration in the region's macro picture could further dampen sales.' We caution that sales could decline further later in the year on the back of these dynamics.
In 2012, passenger car sales in Europe decreased 8.2%, to 12,053,904 units. The falls were mainly in Western Europe, where there was a marked difference in sales volumes and the direction of change with the CEE region.
|Bearish Forecast Playing Out|
|Germany Monthly Passenger Car Sales, CBUs|