Regional Uptick Set To Continue As BMI View Plays Out
Passenger car sales in the European Union (EU-27) increased 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September, to 1,156,066 units. Over the first nine months of the year, however, the regional market has declined 3.9% y-o-y, to 9,000,629 units. BMI has long maintained that the declines in the regional market would continue to moderate over the course of 2013, and this has played out, with sales growth for some months entering positive territory. As highlighted below, several of the larger Western European markets have posted strong improvements in sales in recent months, and this has driven the regional resurgence.
Generally, the macro outlook for much of the region remains poor, although our view on private consumption in some markets is improving somewhat from last year. Much of the moderation in declines has been down to pent-up demand in the market following several years of sustained declines. We expect many of these markets to bottom out in 2013, before posting modest sales increases in 2014. In many markets, sales volumes remain far below their pre-global financial crisis peak, and we expect this to remain the case for some time to come.
Bearish Western Europe Outlook
|Sales Prompt Upward Forecast Revision Despite Consumer Weakness|
|France Monthly Passenger Car Sales, units|